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Technology Stocks : Trimble Navigation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jamse who wrote (2624)	7/23/1998 11:00:00 AM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

>> I don't think there is much downside at this point, all the bad news is out.>> Jamse, I am not sure all the bad news is out. It doesn't look all that good in aerospace. The 1998 first quarter had low margins due to aerospace. The second quarter had worse overall margins in spite of improvements in other business. So, the full story is not out on aerospace. It looks like Trimble squeezed out all it could to avoid making a loss. But, I have a sneaking suspicion that the next quarter there could be some charges for layoffs/restructuring of the aerospace division. Aerospace has been riding the HT-9100 wave. Otherwise many things have not really worked out. Terra products were not in stock with dealers for a long time. That probably wiped out a large portion of loyal Terra customers. Cugrs had all kinds of production problems. The Trimline avionics appears in two aircrafts - those by Cirrus Design and Mico but the Cirrus Design's production has been delayed because of pending certification. FAA certification seems to be full of delays, as a rule. Aircell was questioned by its competitors (GTE etc.) about interference with other frequencies. Aircell is still operating under a limited license to provide approximately 1500 connections. However, on the brighter side, I anticipate timing revenues to start hitting the overall revenue in a significant way next quarter onwards. Agriculture should be slow growth because of over supply of grain in the world market and falling prices. Arun

To: Jamse who wrote (2624)	7/23/1998 12:26:00 PM
From: David	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

Jamse, I think TRMB has hit another slow patch, and it is getting increasingly frustrating. We should check in with the conference call. I suspect surveying sales in Japan have dropped, given the Japanese recession. As Arun noted, the aerospace division has never seemed to be under very good managerial controls. It was encouraging to see the remarks on telecommunications, but I think it is still increasing from a very low base level. Overall, I would not be buying at this moment. Unless Trimble has major good news to announce, I think the stock is here or a little lower for the short term. You might watch for a dip, and buy in for a long term gain. Here's some unfriendly financial analysis from the Yahoo! thread: messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com In the interest of full disclosure, I sold a relatively small fraction of my holdings on the day of the preannouncement because I saw a very good opportunity elsewhere (which has since risen about 33%). I am still extremely bullish long term, but now believe that the chances of an eventual takeover are as high as they have ever been, since the current management is not making enough profits to keep the market capitalization where it should be.