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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMD who wrote (12885)	7/23/1998 10:16:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 152472

All, from Yahoo thread, agree, or dis. Yahoo! Games - play online poker, chess, bridge, backgammon, spades ... Message Boards Help - Edit Public Profile - Personalize - Sign Out Top:Business and Finance:Stocks:Technology:Communications Equipment:QCOM (QUALCOMM, Inc.) <- Previous Next -> Message 6411 of 6414 Reply LU competition AJPeterson (27/M/San Diego, CA) Jul 23 1998 7:17PM EDT LU is a formidable competitor in CDMA for Qualcomm. To continue justifying a large premium in their stock value, QCOM needs to excel in network infrastructure as well as phones. They evidently realize that and have positioned themselves to do just this. Their contract with Globalstar is as a system supplier and their deals with foreign operators underlies their efforts to go head to head with LU. QCOM is faster and more innovative than LU because of their smaller size and headstart in CDMA technology but LU is considered the premier CDMA vendor in network infrastructure. To play in the infrastructure market, QCOM is at a significant disadvantage due to their lack of vast capital resources. This is why they are proposing a spin off company that will own the portions of the operating companies that they are investing in to win the large lucrative infrastructure contracts. Success in the infrastructure market is not as much related to technology as it is to political clout and deep pockets to make the investments in the operating companies or countries where the contracts are won. QCOM is foraging into new territory against competition with much greater resources. I'd give LU 10:1 odds against QCOM if it weren't for the brand name that Qualcomm represents. To the masses QCOM = CDMA and the novelty of the technology makes many believe that the safest move is to buy CDMA technology from the same company that poineered it; but LU are no CDMA bozos and they have one of the world's most respected research labs to back it up. I have been very impressed with QCOM's ability to win some initial infrastructure contracts but when they start to deploy it, don't be surprised if it gets less than rave reviews that will point out the stark difference between them and LU. p.s., as free advice, keep at arms length from the spin-off venture that QCOM is planning. It is their answer to raise capital to make the kind of investments that big companies like NT, LU, and Ericsson do to win significant contracts. QCOM may be worth their weight in gold in the future but that spin-off is a long shot. QCOM: Quote \| Profile \| Research This Is a Reply to: Msg 6379 by amygdala7 View Replies to this Message <- Previous Next -> Message 6411 of 6414 Reply Go to: Start \| Most Recent \| Message List \| Message Number: Terms and Conditions Yahoo! is a trademark of Yahoo! Inc. Copyright c 1994-98 Yahoo! All Rights Reserved.

To: JMD who wrote (12885)	7/23/1998 11:20:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

SurferM, From M/L analysis: "The ASIC business was a little better than expected due to strong demand from Korean phone manufacturers. The number of CDMA subscribers added in Korea in the June quarter almost doubled to 2 million versus 1.1 million a year ago." Remember when people were worried about Korea's property and banking problems affecting Qualcomm badly? Well, those sales look pretty good to me and confirm the theory that Koreans have cancelled overseas trips and have put a bit of the money saved into cdmaOne handsets. Markets a sea of red today, Qualcomm included. Volume quickly down to twice normal after the big day. Here's a url ddi.co.jp with a map of Japan on it showing cdmaOne areas coming into service and when. You have to go to the bottom of the page and click on "cdmaOne" button. Tokyo [green] area won't be until April 1999. Kansai [purple] is covered now. Blue in December. Pink in Feb 99. Northern [the rest] also in April 99. 283bn Yen charge being taken by NTT DoCoMo to liquidate PHS. See url: 205.187.221.13 for interesting articles on Japan. 14 July item. So, you can bet that when Japan gets going on cdmaOne, it will be buying a lot more than Korea. Next year results are going to be red hot! This quarter revenue is pretty good, way up compared with same Q last year. Bit of a market downturn today! Mqurice 8 days to go...

To: JMD who wrote (12885)	7/24/1998 9:24:00 AM
From: Gregg Powers	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 152472

Michael: Unlike First Boston's Marc Cabi, who I think has a specific malicious agenda, I am more sanguine about Merrill's Michael Ching. Given what people are paid in this industry, I really shouldn't cut him any slack, but he is a decent kid who seemed to get a little overwhelmed. Remember that he had a "hold rating" on the stock prior to the earnings release...so he clearly wasn't totally up to speed on current events. Now factor in the stock being up nine points and consider that his salesforce (and clients) were howling that "he blew the call". Being a little young and probably a little immature professionally, cognitive dissonance kicked in and he spewed out a rather thoughtless and inaccurate First Call note. He clearly did not understand the license and royalty accounting (which is very conservative) or the profundity of the company's guidance regarding forward handset margins and infrastructure profitability. Fine. Often we forget that "analysts" are human beings with emotions and foibles just like the rest of us, so I am inclined to cut Michael a little slack (and to spend some time working to get him educated). I continue to be amazed by all the focus on the June quarter...which was, to my mind, a throw-away interim to be endured not enjoyed. As I noted in my last detailed post, the real excitement should begin with the September quarter. Total revenues will be up; handset volumes will be rise and margins should surge due to improved mix (i.e. Q800 shipments) and the absence of rework costs (which the company noted were "significant" in the June quarter); infrastructure revenue should be up sharply (due to both cellular and Globalstar shipments); ASICs will benefit from worldwide growth, including the Japanese launch, network development throughout the Americas and a stable Korea; royalties should rise, tracking accelerating subscriber growth. It's astonishing, after all the previous focus on the Korean Won's devaluation, that nobody and I mean nobody, seems to be talking about the Won's recent strength. Prior to the Asian crisis, the won was trading around 900 to the dollar. At the bottom it got to 2000 to the dollar. Overnight it rallied another 2% (against the dollar) and is now trading at 1245 to the buck (versus 1390 at quarter end). Besides the obvious positive impact on QC royalties, I would note that the strengthening currency is indicative of Korea's progress and improving financial stability...this is another positive. Wars are not won in a day. Three weeks ago, people on this thread were worrying about a return trip to the 40's. Today people seem disappointed that the stock did not go straight-line into the 70's. But let's be realistic...the June quarter simply provided us with important clues as to what will happen prospectively. These clues were obvious to some and lost on others. Some of the shorts probably covered, but others probably continue to believe Marc Cabi's drivel and may be doubling up right here. That's how markets work and that's why this business is so wonderful...each day professional investors are required to synthesize all the available facts and near-facts and make a judgment. Some are smarter than others, some are more diligent than others, some get trapped by their emotions and ego and some are simply rat poo-poo. So be it. In my mind, the September quarter--not the June quarter--will be the seminal period for the Qualcomm faithful. In September investors--for the first time--will get a snapshot of the company's underlying profitability as the infrastructure unit moves toward breakeven. Margins will gap higher on rising revenues and the company's enormous operating leverage will become obvious to all. When this happens, the shorts, the lazy and the malicious will figuratively and literally get their heads handed to them. I, for one, plan to enjoy it immensely. Best regards, Gregg