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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.M.Freedman who wrote (22106)	7/23/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

I don't think this was posted today: Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) 31 -5/16: Adams Harkness lowers estimates on maker of semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment due to expectations provided by management; Q3 revenues to be 25% below Q2 level of $1.18 bln; new orders to decline 33% to about $600-$675 mln; maintains "market perform" rating while lowering FY98 EPS from $1.33 to $1.20 a share and FY99 from $1.10 to $0.72 a share..... PM, I agree that the Asian problems will not be settled overnight. But the fact remains that this is clearly a very forward looking market. Once we get to the November timeframe, the street will already begin looking towards 2000(since AMAT's FY begins Nov 1). Management has conceded that biz is terrible and the bar has been lowered significantly, meaning they're more likely to beat future estimates. Assuming of course, that the fabs aren't shuttered and we return to the Stone Age. Believe it or not, I think some on this thread think this is a possibility.<GGG> Any upturn will unleash a flood of money into the sector and we will probably see plant pull-ins just as we have seen plant push-outs. The pendulum will swing the other way- the question is when. KIM that we are currently in the 3rd years of a bear market for this sector with an anomalous upswing created by Taiwanese foundry purchases for several months that threw everyone off. Equipment, whether 200 or 300mm will need to be purchased. I believe the avg lifespan is ~3 years. If this is true, we are in for a helluva ride sometime soon. Won't even try to predict the month it begins. Only will say we're not too far away. BK