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To: Grand Poobah who wrote (13863)	7/24/1998 1:15:00 AM
From: Grand Poobah	Respond to of 25814

I just read the book-to-bill article a little more closely and realized it was talking about semi equips and not semis. That makes its implications for semis a little less clear. Semi equips run off of the growth in the semis (on top of some static base). So a low semi-equip BB ratio means the semis do not expect growth. It does not tell us whether they expect things to be flat or to shrink, although the severity of the BB doesn't bode well for that. I just don't see how this can be construed as a positive indicator. However, I don't put a lot of stock in the BB's as a rule. My feeling that we are near a bottom which may extend a few quarters comes from the comments of the various semi companies at earnings time. G.P.

To: Grand Poobah who wrote (13863)	7/24/1998 1:23:00 AM
From: Tech Watcher	Respond to of 25814

Grand Poobah, You are correct in what the BB means. That is why it is significant that LSI has reached a BB of 1 while the industry is at a .74. LSI is in the right place at the right time with a good mix of products in demand. Playstations and DVD's for Christmas sales. Networking and Communications products. The "System on a Chip" company will be even more in demand as they help customers out of their doldrums by being first to market with their design expertise. Of historical mention - the BB used to be a monthly number and was always subject to huge revisions. It is now a 3-month average which makes it a little more significant for mapping trends. You are correct in implying the current level indicates another quarter or two for the majority of the industry to regain some semblance of health. As the "Bill" portion shrinks, it becomes easier for the "Book" portion to raise the number. This should be the lowest BB number we see. A single number doesn't have a lot of relevance, but next month's number in comparison will show the overall industry becoming healthier. - Tech Watcher