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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14856)	7/24/1998 7:42:00 AM
From: Gabriela Neri	Respond to of 116763

His stuff is not available on the web. It is subscription based and delivered via fax or email. I dont know how the outcome in Japan will effect the markets. But, as far as I am concerned, the outcome is already expected with regard to markets. Inflation will make POG go up and bonds down, eventually. But, as I indicated, there is a decent lead time in which gold will smell the incipient inflation prior to the published CPI numbers bottoming out. The more Greenspan says all is great, the less I believe him or the less time we have of this greatness continuing. Greenspan, as pointed out in the New York Post today, will probably begin his routine of talking the market up since he doesnt want to see a hard down. He would like to a gentle correction, but if he thinks he can manage the market like he thinks he is managing the the economy, he is dreaming. Greenspan shouldnt confuse luck with smarts.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14856)	7/24/1998 7:44:00 AM
From: Gabriela Neri	Respond to of 116763

IT'S TIME FOR GREENSPAN TO TALK THE STOCK MARKET UP By JOHN CRUDELE-New York Post ------------------------------------------------------------------------ THIS is guaranteed. The next words out of Alan Greenspan's mouth will help the stock market. If you've been following the marble-mouthed chief of the Federal Reserve over the past few years you know this. Greenspan wants to keep the "irrational exuberance" of the stock market in check, but he certainly doesn't want to cause a crash. He feels guilty about the market being so high. And he's being blamed inside and outside the Fed for allowing so much liquidity in this country's monetary system that it created a stock market bubble. To put it simply: Correction = good. Crash = bad. Greenspan = nervous. If Alan Greenspan were to pull a Mike McCurry and leave Washington right now, the first historians would look favorably on his decade as protector of the American currency and arbiter of interest rates. But if Greenspan sticks around one day too long - and has to preside over the inevitable stock market crash - then the place in history that he's worked so hard to achieve will be badly tarnished. Right now Greenspan is probably fretting that he spoke too clearly this week when he again warned about the level of stock prices while at the same time discussing the continuing problems in Asia, the effect on the U.S. economy AND the central bank's concern about inflation. It was just too much for investors to handle. Anybody with even one share of stock probably knows what's happened so far this week. The Dow Jones industrial average fell a total of 405 points, or an average of more than 100 points a day. This is not a crash. The crash will be much worse. But for a country with so much of its wealth invested in the stock market, this week's slide is reason to take notice. And the public will notice because it has never before been invested this heavily in stocks. Greenspan and everyone else knows that he must keep the public from fleeing the stock market. A clipping like this week's will scare some investors. But it probably will also enable Wall Street's cheerleaders to convince others that there is now a buying opportunity. And with Asian investors still viewing the United States as a safer haven than many of their own markets, there is probably enough liquidity left to at least keep this market steady. Alan Greenspan's next role will be as the leading cheerleader. Without a cheery word, Greenspan will be blamed for what's to come. For his encore, the Fed monarch will probably reiterate that there is no need for an interest rate hike. He'll say that only investors know the true value of the stock market - his "what do I know about stocks" routine. And he'll repeat that while Asia's problems are affecting our economy, there is no certainty that we are entering a recession. The speech is filed under "keeping the market's calm." Greenspan has given it before and most people will believe him. But others will look at the facts and start questioning the chairman's credibility in the face of ongoing events. First, corporations will continue to report disappointing second-quarter profits. And more and more companies will mention - probably not in the frankest of terms - that the Asian problem is starting to hurt. Earnings will continue to be disappointing. Ouch! Worse, the government's measure of the nation's economy in the second quarter - the gross domestic product report to be issued next Friday - will show that there was very little, if any, economic growth in the second quarter. The GM strike hurt. But without some fancy seasonal adjustments, the number would have been even worse. With stock prices at stratospheric levels, that report will make investors wonder whether they might be more than a bit too optimistic about the profits of corporations. Greenspan will not be able to overcome those numbers. Nor will he be able to overcome the Washington scandals. There is little that the Fed chairman can say - much less do - that will make the Clinton scandals go away. But the worse part of that situation is that Wall Street and investors are expecting so little. They expect the controversy to go away. To have no impact on anything. But if my sources are correct - and they are very knowledgeable - the scandal not only won't go away but it will grow. And like the corporate earnings disappointments that are now surprising Wall Street, the scandal will eventually panic the market. Alan Greenspan, you better say something encouraging fast.