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Technology Stocks : ADE Corp. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JZGalt who wrote (278)	7/24/1998 8:35:00 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 346

Remember that when this turnaround ocurrs - the price of the stocks that benefit from this business uptick will already be up 30 %.I.E. Oracle or Seagate. Right now what is obvious is that business is in a downcycle.Past downcycle bottoms ocurred in july - oct 1995 upcycle top ocurred in july - oct 1996 Main point is these cycles due to technology change occur faster and faster. My bet is that a portfolio accumulated at or near a bottom (just in case you are not perfect - as my track record duly notes) isn't that far off in time from the first quick pop that results from an awareness that these companies actually are in a viable business. In 1997 Daymarc received 15 million in surprise orders from micron as a result of chip size shrinkage.These orders were for dedicated kits(tracks that retrofit existing machines).Even tho no new machines were sold - the underlying business was still active and efficiency changes are based on "continuous improvement". It amazes me that wallstreet takes dynamic companies with garlic malt strong balance sheets to losers because a book to bill drops from 1.1 to .74. Granted the stellar growth stories are gone. I just don't see the lights going off. The fast price rise of the stocks we watch will occur when the earnings of the underlying stocks bottom or plateau.By the time sales uptick we will be wishing we had bought more back in time. In short the wait is much shorter than anyone is saying. IMHO Bob