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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (6373)	7/25/1998 8:26:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

it is so simple... Japan will not fix their entire banking system until a paradigm shift occurs in the culture... at present for a large bank to become liquidated, its CEO or president must commit suicide... the shame in opening the books leads quickly to such a climax... therfore no books are opened yet, no purchases of distressed portfolios has happened yet, nothing get done... heads will inevitably roll, in ceremonious ritual check recent history for validation... the shame involved in being responsible for massive losses of other people's money is beyond western understanding business as usual... new LDP leader is most recent winner (loser?) in party's musical chairs contest... next comes a stagnation as coalitions are loosely built, fractious partnerships are made, nothing gets done... LDP now has no credibility, no leadership, no mandate the people want a change, reform, real progress... they are sick of the govt forced pension investments... but they stubbornly cling to the culture that binds them to the problem the biggest unstated question pertaining to Japan is ... * WHEN IS THEIR BOND MARKET BUBBLE GOING TO BURST ??? * STOCK MARKET BUBBLE WAS FOLLOWED BY A SILENT BOND MARKET BUBBLE ??? progress economically is predicated upon allowing inflation to regenerate spending (not current hording), which in turn undermines JGB bonds, which pricks the staggering, enormous, calamitous, unprecedented, unspoken bond market bubble !!!!! nothing will get done, because the solution involves a depression following the bond market bubble burst... take a minute and imagine what happens to your $1,2,3 trillion dollar pension investments after these political mutual funds are unraveled... a sizeable reduction in pension assets !!! Japan's economy is the closest thing to a mafia running a govt... Japan is an economy planned on the premise of capital costing ZERO, resulting in bond yield converging to ZERO... it worked, and here we are the solution for Japan requires a 30% reduction in stock market assets, a 30% reduction in pension assets linked to the bond bubble, as interest rates exit FantasyLand tick, tick, tick / Jim Willie

To: Mason Barge who wrote (6373)	7/27/1998 8:08:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Mason, I'm back in the States but have been keeping a low profile due to the fact that there isn't much I can add to the things I've already said, except perhaps that Japan may slowly slide beneath the waves (economically) rather than go down spectacularly like Atlantis or Krakatoa. They (the Japanese) want change, but not too much change, and so I really expect nothing to be done for a while. I would continue to be wary of both semis and oil (and drillers) since I don't see a real surge in economic expansion in the Far East until Japan begins real reform and recovery. In the meantime, I've been looking for a place to park some money while I'm awaiting a recovery in my two favorite sectors, so I put some cash into AWRE, SWLDY (a small but very interesting software company that got hammered recently when they missed their numbers for the quarter) and ASYT, which I think has had all of the fear wrung out of it possible. Anyway, I bought Aware last week at 10.375 and it promptly took a dump and closed at 8.625 (I think). I now feel a fiduciary responsibility to tell investors that I'm going to buy a company before I actually do, so they can unload their shares before I buy in and the price plunges ;^). Anybody know why the big drop in Aware? It has Bill Gate's blessing if I recall correctly. I saw the headlines about the quarterly loss increase, but the potential for XDSL is fantastic. Has there been some technological shift I don't know about? Jess.