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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (5759)	7/24/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Greg S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

1) A collective decision by all (most) curent TDFX holders to either sell their positions, or stop buying/trading it for at least 4 months. So everyone dumps the stock and it drops to $4/share. Investment firms say that's a pretty sweet value so they finally decide to pick it up about halfway through the quarter. All of us then buy back in strong, boosting the price to $16-20. The end of the quarter rolls around, semis may or may not be recovering. Investment firms either: a) Keep confidence in the stock through earnings, despite that in the previous two quarters even blowout earnings took the stock for a tragic dive (granted, other market forces were different during that time ..) b) Drop and downgrade the stock once again to make a pretty smooth 300% return in three months, thanks to all of us retail investors dumping our stock to allow them to come in low. I consider myself a fairly generous person, but not generous enough to dump stock at a heavy loss and bank on big investors to bring it up for us, so I can maybe come in later. I think it's better just to hold it and bank on big investors to bring it up for us, so I can surely come in at the ground floor. We're nearing IPO levels (IPO was at $11, Market open was $13 if my numbers are right? I came in at $13 1/2). Even if it drops to $9 .. "cutting our losses" now wouldn't be much of a cut. We've already been drawn and quartered, chewed up by the dog and run over with the neighbor's lawnmower. No sense in worrying about crawling to the hospital when we can wait for the paramedics. 2) An active promotion of TDFX stock by the management to the fund managers after retail investors are out (because the pros will not want to touch a stock that is highly dominated by retail investor/traders because those people (US collectivly) do not act rationally as a whole and damage the pros game plan). So even if we all dump the stuck, once an institution buys into it .. guess who will jump aboard? Loads and loads of - you guessed it - retail investors. I think if institutional investors are going to pick up this stock they will do it because it is looking strong and ready for immediate growth, not because 90% of its investors lost short-term confidence in the security. All dumping the stock will do is satisfy the shorts and force more weak hands out. I personally can't believe that there's so little buying power that we're dropping below 14. -G