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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D. Swiss who wrote (53866)	7/24/1998 12:26:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Drew, One of the secrets to being seen as a stock seer, is to make predictions covering every possible scenario. Then you can always point to the prediction that is correct and then claim that you are a stock prophet. The need to behave this way is rooted in a narcisistic desire for attention.

To: D. Swiss who wrote (53866)	7/24/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

OT Re: Spalding's predictions. They reminds me of an old MD I knew years ago who had the uncanny knack of predicting the sex of a fetus with 100% accuracy. This was in the days before amniocentesis. He would say to the mom to be, "Mrs. Jones, you are going to have a little girl". But when Mrs. Jones produced a bright bouncing little boy and wondered about the accuracy of the prediction the old Doc would look up the file and say, "Mrs. Jones, there must be some mistake. See here -- I clearly wrote 'boy'". True story. Now that's called establishing a hedged position. TTFN, CTC

To: D. Swiss who wrote (53866)	7/24/1998 5:46:00 PM
From: William C. Spaulding	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

(1) I said that 130 was an absolute top, not that it would get there! (2) I said I thought it would reach 120, but wouldn't stay there, so I don't think my revised forecast is really that different. Dell may touch 120 by earnings time, but it will decline shortly thereafter, and won't reach that level again until at least mid-September, and more permanently in November. If you noticed on the graph, it does bob up and down during the month of August, but it doesn't really surpass its peak that it reached in July, 1997. It has gotten to 118, so it is not unreasonable to assume that it will get to 120, but I don't think it will stay there. (3) Yes, I do change my forecasts as new info comes to my attention. What's wrong with that? If you look at my forecasts last year, they were pretty accurate. No, I'm not covering every possibility. I don't think Dell is going to go below 100 or above 120 for the month of August. I think that's fairly specific. Also, I can add that Dell will probably reach 130 or better by September or early October, but then will decline in mid-October. I don't think anybody can be more specific, since you can only make general predictions about the market. More specificity would require more quantification and true fortune telling, which isn't possible. Most importantly, I'm not saying I'm going to be right. Nobody can really know what the market is going to do. I'm just offering my opinion as to what I think will happen, just like you can offer your opinion about anything.