A Quick General Overview of COII
In trying to understand this stock I've read all the posts and these helped me to learn the most. I've simply copied all or part of the posts that I liked best.
Tom, CTI's technology can spot a cancerous lesion before a woman is even aware that it is present in her body. Possibly Dave can respond to this, but I believe that they can detect something as small as the head of a pin. Being able to detect something this size is the difference between life and death for many women. By the time a mammogram is able to detect a lump there is a high probability that the cancer has already spread into her lymph.
The reason I bring this up is your concern that a doctor will send any type of lump in for a biopsy fearing a law suit. I think the important thing that investors should again remember is that CTI's technology will find this lump/lesion long before a mammogram is even able to detect it's presence. If a doctor is aware of this type of accuracy, rather than shy away from CTI's technology I would think they would use it as a first line of defense to protect themselves and their patients. Why wait for the lesion to finally be recognized by a mammogram when it could have been detected much earlier. This actually appears to be the way to stay out of any possible litigation.
Gwolf
Dave Nichols, L.A. County General and Howard University are the other two hospitals involved in the clinical trials. I don't know that Howard University is a major player, but of course L.A. County is well known. It would be nice if they could get a well known eastern hospital to join the trials. BY the way I thought your remarks were right on the mark.
Gwolf
For those of you that would like to see the information on the USC Norris Cancer website, here is how you find it.
128.125.190.120
Once you get to this spot you need to click on "protocal numbers" on the left side of the site. It will then give you a list of protocols. Go to page #6 and look for protocol 1B-97-5 " Breast Screening ". At the bottom of the page it gives the phone number (213)764-0451 if you want further information.
Barbara
I just got off the phone with David Packer - he varified to me that the application, to become a fully reporting company, does include some additional shares being registered. He did not have the break down in front of him but thought that the common shares outstanding, after the registration was complete would be in the low 40 million range (pre registration it is currently 38+million. The float is 14+million and , as mentioned before the total authorized # of shares is 100 million.
As I thought the quiet period is necessary due to the stock registration issue.
Mr. Packer, due to the quiet period, was unable to answer any of my questions concerning the resent strength in buying. I asked if he knew of any group buying the stock? I asked if he thought it was possible that insiders involved in the trials... could be buying the stock? I asked if he could comment on the timing of the completion of the trails?
"That would be a forward looking statement", was his response to all questions. Well I tried!
I appreciate his honesty.
Mr.K
First there is no doubt in my mind that this technology is on the right tract and when the clinical studies are over we will be in for the ride of our lives. I have been involved in four FDA studies for new drugs. Early on in two of them it was apparent they didn't work. There is a certain amount of review that goes on during these studies and if it is apparent the modality doesn't work the study is stopped. There is no need to throw good money away. The fact that this study has gone on this long, from past experience, leads me to believe they are on the right tract.
As a physician I can tell you that even if C.T.I. technology only matches mammography, it will replace it. If anyone on this thread has ever had or watched a mammogram and then offered the women a modality that was painless, no radiation, and was equal if not better what do you think they would say.
If C.T.I. can expand this modality to back injuries the insurance companies will be elated. I see one to two job related back injuries on a daily basis in the E.R. It is well known that injured muscles that are inflammed and hyperemic are warmer do to the increased vasculature. If I could scan the patient and tell the workmens comp. insurance that this patient is faking it or really injured. What do you think they would say about endorsing this technology. Phoney workmens comp. is a billion dollar scam.
Lastly I would say to everyone when ultrasound first arrived it was a useless scan that looked like wavy lines on a monitor. Only after microprocessers came about, (though crude in their early state) did ultrasound become highly useful. Medical academics has known for a long time that tumors and injuries are warmer due to a higher vasculature. Only now with the higher processors and software that is available can we now begin to utilize this technology.
I am extremely bullish on COII and I don't think it really matters who shorts the stock. When the study is out and blasted on CNN and all the women's magazines look out.
Dr.Dave
To All: CTI is in a Phase 3 trial. This trial is a Double "BLIND" study. I highlight blind because this is exactly what the participants are, blind to all of the information being gathered. CTI only sees the information they gather, They do not see the info on the mammograms, They do not see the results of the Biopsies. The Doctors are not permitted to know CTI's results, they do of course know the results of the biopsy so they can assist the patient. The people conducting the mammograms don't get any information other than their own results. The doctors are only allowed to confirm that a clinical trial is in process. ONLY the FDA will be able to see all of the information. This is the Data Collection step. The next step is Data Analysis. In data analysis the have to evaluate how the Doctor would interpret and evaluate the data from CTI. They would present the mammogram only data to a group of doctors and see what their diagnosis would be. They then would take the same case studies and present it to a different set of doctors and see what their diagnosis would be using the information from CTI process. This all takes place after the data collection is complete. Once they have the CTI data, mammogram data, biopsy data, data analysis and doctor evaluation it is then submitted in a seperate filing for approval. My point of this long explanation is that you can call everyone associated with this whole process and you will not be able to find out what's going on because no one person or affliation will know other than the FDA.
Everyone wants to know what is going on with the company but at the same time they don't want any hype. That's very interesting. If the company is in talks with someone about a potential sale and they tell all the shareholders about it and then it never comes to pass wouldn't that look like they were just hyping the company. If you look at the press releases of most companies you will see that they generally create a news release on some material fact after it has been consumated. Usually they only comment on something other than a done deal if it hits the news prematurely and then they are usually requested to do so by the exchange or the NASDAQ. So when is it news and when is it hype. If nothing has actually occured and they are just working on something then the only thing they can tell us is about something they think will happen in the future. That is a forward looking statement which they can not do. I don't know who peoples inside sources are but if it is not coming directly from the company then I would be suspicous as to it's nature. There are people who are close to the company that may see things in process who comment on this, but remember one thing, a deal in process does not make it a done deal. Deals get postponed, delayed and outright canceled. What's that old saying don't count your chickens before they're hatched.
Gwolf
thermal imaging has been around for more than 20 years. the problem is that no one has applied computer technology to the images. in the end you just end up with a bunch of colored blobs and some intuitiive ideas based upon temperature gradiant.
......cti uses the horsepower of the computer to INTERPRET those images. that is where the difference lies. and it is a huge difference.
curtis
The algorithms make the difference between interesting pictures and an actual technology. If you remember my post way back when I mentioned that Ultrasound had been around for along time with no commercial use until the images where computerized. This is the same situation that we have here with CTI. Without the algorithms and the extensive data base to refine the technology you just have pictures. This other company produces a camera only, the camera isn't the key. By the way CTI uses a 510k FDA cleared camera.
I've been following COII for several years. I'm a stockholder in Drexler Technology,
DRXR. DRXR makes the optical memory card that COII plans to use for storing the
computerized thermal images. Remember when COII announced their China project?
I've read that there are over 30,000,000 mammograms performed in the US every
year. If and/or when COII gets FDA approval, each computerized thermal imaging
patient will need an optical memory card to store their images. COII can sell the razor
and DRXR can sell the razor blades and they'll both make money.
george
....there are 2 sides
1. there are now a number of thermal imaging companies dedicated only to medical conditions and there are companies that have computer algorithms for many diseases that can be used in thermography, mammography, cardiology, etc. that means competition is coming! slight upgrade of the tech + the algorithms is a snap.
2. the fact that there is some competition is a good thing. it means that they are in a great space with other companies seeing the profits there. since coii is so far ahead, the others will popularize cti as investors search for the industry leader.
so far, no one seems to have the algorithms + the technology + the clinical trials = i agree coii is far ahead as industry leader
curtis
Message 5172748
Message 5211068
the thermography could measure therogenesis--the heat generated by cell activity--the same thing it measures for cancer detection.
.....at .002 C degrees!!!!!
Pharm Res 1998 Jun;15(6):944-949
Development of infrared imaging to measure thermogenesis in cell culture: thermogenic effects of uncoupling protein-2, troglitazone, and beta-adrenoceptor agonists.
Paulik MA, Buckholz RG, Lancaster ME, Dallas WS, Hull-Ryde EA, Weiel JE, Lenhard JM
Department of Metabolic Diseases, GlaxoWellcome Inc., Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709, USA. map16209@glaxowellcome.com
[Medline record in process]
PURPOSE: Although the effects of thermogenic agents in cell culture can be measured by direct microcalorimetry, only a few samples can be analyzed over several hours. In this report, we describe a robust non-invasive technique to measure real-time thermogenesis of cells cultured in microtiter plates using infrared thermography. METHODS: Yeast were transformed with uncoupling protein-2 (UCP2) or exposed to carbonyl cyanide p-(trifluoromethoxy)phenylhydrazone (FCCP) or rotenone. Adipocytes were exposed to rotenone, FCCP, cycloheximide. troglitazone, or CL316243. Thermogenesis was measured using infrared thermography. RESULTS: Thermogenesis increased after exposing yeast to the mitochondrial uncoupler, FCCP, or transforming the cells with UCP2. Further, thermogenesis in adipocytes was stimulated by CL316243, a beta3-adrenoceptor agonist being developed to treat obesity. The protein synthesis inhibitor, cycloheximide, did not inhibit CL316243-mediated thermogenesis. In contrast, the mitochondrial proton transport inhibitor, rotenone, inhibited thermogenesis in yeast and adipocytes. Similarly, the antidiabetic agent, troglitazone, suppressed thermogenesis in adipocytes. Although increased UCP synthesis resulted in increased thermogenesis in yeast, UCP expression did not correlate with thermogenesis in adipocytes. CONCLUSIONS: The results, taken together with the high resolution (0.002 degrees C) and robustness (384-well format) of the approach, indicate infrared-imaging is a rapid and effective method for measuring thermogenesis in vitro
Curtis
1)The company is broke & their lawyers are morons- If anyone has looked at the registration statement and followed the information about Ambient Capital then they will know that the company is indeed very low on funds. The company needed Ambients funding to continue their day to day functions. Those funds can not be released until the company is fully reporting and that process is definitely dragging on. I do not believe their is any thing wrong with the companies filing, it appears to be the blood sucking lawyers as usual that are either incompetent or just trying to run up the bill. In either case the company is in need of new funds to keep going. I personally can't speak for the money they may owe TRW or the fact that they have laid off people from the CTI project, I personally wouldn't be surprised by that statement. Dave Packer is constantly out of the office doing his job so I don't think we need a full office with salaried employees at this point.
(2)They are not in trials for diagnostic approval - that is correct, they are in trials as a pre-screening device only. When they receive approval a patient will then receive a CTI screening and then would still have to get a mammogram. So FDA approval will not set CTI up to immediately replace the mammogram. Once the pre-screening approval is received then they will have to go back and go through trials or the approval process to have the technology approved for diagnostic procedures. I can't answer the question about wether a hospital will allow them to take up valuable space for a pre-screening device versus a diagnostic device.
(3)The competitors can hurt them - the company has always believed that there will be competition, they felt that they had about a 2 year head start. They have always felt that they could get into the hospitals and become the standard before the competition got strong. Mike does have an interesting point by asking if the company can actually place machines just for pre-screening so as to establish themselves as the standard. If they can't then the competition could possibly catch up to them and attempt to enter the market on the the back of their final diagnostic approval. This is a question that Dave will have to answer about their strategic plan.
(4)Market Cap & machine cost and revenues - CTI planned to sell the machines originally at about $300,000, they are now planning to lease them. I don't know what the actual cost will be but the $7 million from Ambient is basically for working capital and will not get the actual product to market. The company will need several hundred million dollars to ramp up to a stage that will provided meaningful revenues, these funds have not yet be obtained. It is difficult to say what an appropriate market cap for this company should be, the company in many respects is just like a bio-tech, everything is based on anticipation rather than any actual revenues or earnings. You would have to find out what the market is for mammograms right now and then make some assumptions about how many hospitals will drop mammograms and how soon, how soon the competition will catch up.
I think if you will all look at the post I have put out you will see that I have always expressed my opinion that this is a L.T. investment. I have also stated that this is a development stage company and with development stage companies comes high risk and potential high reward. If any of you think that this is a slam dunk then you are fooling yourselves, their are plenty of risk that the company has to deal with. Dave Packer once told me that the technology is not the risk with this company, he said the risk is wether or not the management can successfully bring the technology to market, if they had the expertise to put it all together. Dave told me that he was confident that they could put it all together, I personally respect Dave for being so honest with me about this.
If people are in this company based upon the hype they hear about the company in the short run i.e. Oprah winfrey shows, Fully Reporting status & FDA approvals then they don't realize that the company has a long way to go from their. The company still has to arrange equipment financing, they have to get final FDA approval for the technology as a diagnostic device, they have to get the insurance companies to accept this as a billable item and they have to get the medical community to accept this technology and get it into the hospitals. If you are in this stock as a short term move based upon the latest hype then you really don't understand the company and it is not an investment for you it is just a quick speculation.
I encourage everyone to stop and ask yourself why you are in this company, what is your time horizon for this investment, what do you really know about the company, are you listening to someone's hype, have you done any homework and called the company. Mike's comments where all correct and if that scares you then you need to go back and ask yourself why you are in this stock. The company has risk but it also has potential, you need to decide if you understand the the risk as well as the reward, if you do then you will be able to ride through the wild swings from the highs and the lows of a development stage company. Remember one thing that stocks go down as well as up, If you are a L.T. investor then the price movements over the S.T. don't mean much to you.
Gwolf
Continued
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