To: Philipp who wrote (2102 ) 7/25/1998 6:35:00 AM From: Philipp Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 8307
Does anyone on this thread actually really know anything about this company? Playing TA, chart games is one thing, but at earnings time some FA would be useful. Statements like "it will fall like a rock after earnings" just reflect the same bearish bias that has fueled all those other speculative runs. In that context, I am really surprised how well AMZN has kept up since earnings and, in particular, yesterday. Is there some hidden strength or is it just a flash? I have to admit that this is the company I know the least about of all companies I have ever held a position in (well two opposite positions now). Some relevant/useful info I just collected for my own information from the WSJ briefing book, SI profile and others: three websites sales 1998: 293.1 Million; year on year: -18.7% (863 M in 1995!) employees: 337 revenues (Millions; last four quarters): 56.20 63.30 99.10 74.50 ongoing operations for last quarter: 30.5 M earnings per share (last four quarters): $ -0.21 -0.24 -0.29 -1.51 net loss in last quarter: -35.9 M without charges, income adjustments: -6.8 M shares outstanding increased from 17.6 to 23.1 million (!?) price to book: 1.53 price to sales (from SI): 1.9 (but this includes sales from previous era as bricks-and-mortar store, about 4 if only ongoing operations included) sixth most visited commercial website (really?) income from auction website rose to 13.7 M in present quarter from 7 M in previous quarter (29 M in first year of operation) number of registered bidders increased from 29000 (9/1997) to 168000 (6/1998) company cautions that growth in other two websites is not comparable from previous earnings: marketing alliances with CNET, YAHOO!, GeoCities, USA.net list of email addresses: 1.6M plans to develop revenue and customer base by heavy marketing, expects substantial operating losses for the foreseeable future cash position: 67 M Some of the comparisons will be difficult, since one has to take out EGGS previous history as a bricks-and-mortar company. There is a lot of room for spin and dubious accounting. I guess, one is really looking for the same sort of things as with AMZN. - growth of revenue from ongoing operations (comparison number: 30.5 M) - comparison of the three websites - increase of customer base, repeat customers; how do they hold up with the increased competition? - new marketing alliances - cash position - operating loss/sales To me there seems to be a lot of positive and negative potential. For example, the revenue on the other two websites could actually be falling (the company put out a caution!). But it could also show some intrinsic strength and it is still highly undervalued compared to AMZN. I would appreciate some SERIOUS discussion (not like on the AMZN thread: "I know it will go bankrupt in a few years"). Neutral at the moment, but assessing. Cheers, Phil