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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (12007)	7/24/1998 9:45:00 PM
From: peter michaelson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Roger: One can't know for sure at this point, but I have my doubts that a big bank could enter and dominate, as their culture is permeated with the Bricks & Mortar mentality, their cost structure is high, and their attitudes are not 'internet moderne'. What would be a big bank's competitive advantage? Several, including deep pockets,obviously, but not sufficient, IMO. Personally, I see lots of new, small banks, more in the mode of Bob's comments. This bank discussion has reminded me of how much the economy may shift over the next decade due to the efficiencies of the internet. Buy a car, bank, reduce the real estate agent's stranglehold on information, et cetera. Peter

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (12007)	7/25/1998 4:10:00 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 18691

Has anyone here mentioned GKI? Writeup in the latest Barrons and a real pump and dump tone to the Yahoo board. But only 5 million float. OTOH, latest short interest is minimal. What's the catch?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (12007)	7/25/1998 11:30:00 PM
From: GuitarMan	Respond to of 18691

"FaxSav (FAXX) was down $1 1/16 to $6 13/16 after announcing it has completed a $7 million private placement of 2 million new shares of common stock for $3.50 a share." - We will have to have a closer look at this one Roger.... Good hunting.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (12007)	7/28/1998 4:04:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

How about shorting USW (the smallest baby bell) ? Here's the reasoning: 1. baby bell's corporate culture created in an era of heavy regulation. Hard to make the transition to a competitive market. 2. Stock prices of baby bells are propped up by the fact that they have been able to thwart the intent of deregulation, and maintain local monopolies. This is, finally, coming to an end. 3. cable modems are being pushed by the Big Boys of tech (microsoft, intel), who see a bandwidth bottleneck as the limiting step holding back software and chip market growth. Cable modems will begin selling in volume in 1999. 4. after cable is the low-earth satellite networks, which will let all communications become mobile, and turn the entire planet into a single local dialing area, ending all local monopolies. 5. the baby bells have a lot of debt, from building an infrastructure that is rapidly becoming obsolete, and can't be upgraded. Max speed (in mbps): phone DSL: 1.5; cable:30 in theory, 10 really;satellite:100 (one way now, two way by 2003). 6. Specifically, why I chose US West: it is the most highly leveraged of the baby bells: (debt to equity = 54%); 5-year PE range is 7-23, and it's now at 20, near the top end; 5-year average EPS growth rate is -1(that's minus one). Not good numbers. Can anyone think of another company more likely to lose out in the last-mile/digital convergence wars? I'm looking for something to use as a hedge for my Cisco stock, which is overvalued and just keeps on getting more so.