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To: marc chatman who wrote (26439)	7/24/1998 5:22:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

marc.... just for discussion purposes....do you think Noesis target of $8 is reachable at this point? Other than war, I can't thnk of anything that could turn this market around in the next six months.

To: marc chatman who wrote (26439)	7/24/1998 5:50:00 PM
From: Richard D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Marc, Well the majority of Wall Street and those on the thread don't want to buy until the knife stops falling. The implication is that they want to buy because they recognize value, but don't want to be bloodied by irrational selling. I think that's where we stand. Sorry, I don't know mutual fund managers personally. And if I did, they would be trashing the sector until they entered. Then miraculously, things would appear rosy once again, surprise, surprise. Sentiment changes quickly, and when you are in a positive state, you can't believe you sold while in the negative sentiment, and vice versa. Asia is bad. No Asia is not so bad or big: let's have a humongous rally. No Asia is very bad and we are on the verge of depression. No wait .... If we had timed those real swings correctly, we would be wealthy men and women. If I recall correctly, Asian markets minus Japan add up to less than the market cap of GE. How could this morass over there have such a big impact on world oil prices? They haven't stopped driving or heating, to boot. I suspect the oil usage in the growing economies of the U.S. and Europe completely overwhelm Asian consumption statistics. So I attribute most of the pricing in oil to EL Nino and increased OPEC production, by far. They both appear to be going away. Asia may not, but I don't think it's as relevant as the other two. There is a theory by economist David Hale that the U.S. will maintain a bubble economy as long as the Asia crisis exists (to help them and us pull through and avoid depression.) This means stimulative monetary policy. This means increased Western oil consumption apart from weather concerns. This stimulative policy will have to be used in Asia as well. This has not hit the news yet, but it is logically inevitable. Perhaps such news will begin the new swing in sentiment. I think you and Papaya have good points, and the trend is on your side. I think I was born a contrarian. Richard