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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (22273)	7/24/1998 10:14:00 PM
From: set	Respond to of 94695

> the highs next week should be a good selling opp so says Jerry Favors, and my gut. But my other gut says the shortable highs won't come that fast. A rally would have to be out of the gate really strong on monday and last most of the week for that to be true. MSFT for example. If it doesn't break down below 112 early on in the week, then I don't think it'll be shortable below 125. I think that pushes us into the week after next at the earliest. Shahar

To: bobby beara who wrote (22273)	7/24/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

BB; I do some TA but not a lot of the traditional stuff, and focus more on divergence / convergence. I feel broad indexes such as the Naz can get skewed to much, if one don't look at the more liquid stocks in respect to them then the "foam and froth" are all mixed up in the broad index. Keep an eye on the top 5 in the NAZ 100, ( they make up 50% of that index and over 25% of the NAZ ) they are the head, the rest is the tail, watch for divergence / convergence between the most liquid stocks and the lesser ones, that's a form of TA but not the traditional method, and it takes some work. The tail whips both ways, using a running ratio. TA on index don't work like on a single stock or at least it's no were near as good. I also don't use TA on cheap stocks particularly in the NAZ and if it's just got one or two Market Makers..the more of them a stock has the less it's subject to manipulation, hence the better TA will work. Candle sticks are OK in their place but far from being any holy grail. In fact I do not like to depend on any single indicator, I like conformation of several. When they are mixed I hedge my bets or stay in a holding pattern. I like trends and say the trend is your friend. This down turn has not been in place long enough to be termed a trend. I don't know that we haven't just set up a new trading range. Time will tell. It all depends on how the bounce does, and then if we turn & make a new low that's lower than the previous one. Jim