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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ron peterson who wrote (26459)	7/24/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: wolfdog2	Respond to of 95453

I bailed today. Probably means that prices immediately will rebound. <g> But with the current glut, short of a major catastrophe, I don't see oil going anywhere for the next few months. And if oil stays down so will the drillers and service stocks. So, I decided to take my losses to offset gains that I had in other sectors. By selling, Uncle Sam joins me and absorbs about 1/3 of my loss.

To: ron peterson who wrote (26459)	7/24/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: Gameboy	Respond to of 95453

Count me in. I believe the key to success is measured response. Holding at 52 week lows in the light of positive earnings reports and forward looking earnings estimates makes sense to me. Measured, restrained purchases also make sense to be - I'd certainly avoid plunging. Am I the only one left wondering what happened to the supposed news item on Venezuela? Apparently aired yesterday after market close - and cautioned as too ugly for kids to read - the futures market response was that Brent crude climbed more than 10 cents. I'm afraid that as skittish as this sector is, the response to bogus rumors or a shouted 'boo' is enough to stampede the herd. To play with one foot on the ground we need to keep watching the real numbers we do have - earnings, earnings estimates, and crude prices. Assuming OPEC did nothing - there would be some self correction to crude prices because even now marginal stripper wells are being capped at the rate of one every 15 minutes here in the US and rigs are being stacked up in the Gulf.. OPEC says they've reduced production by more than 2 million barrels/day since Mar 23 - most of that reduction going into effect after July 1st. I don't know where the price of oil is going, but I do know it's not going down and it sure as heck isn't going to $8/barrel. Best of luck, Steve

To: ron peterson who wrote (26459)	7/24/1998 11:20:00 PM
From: Mark Glembocki	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Ron, To answer your question...I am holding a substantial position in this sector as well, however I will not wither away into the sunset !! I have seen too many "value" investors get absolutely crushed by this sector. I am a very active trader and unfortunately gave back half of my year to date gains due to this sector this week. I took a large position in CDG and ESV on Friday looking for that technical bounce and got caught. Liquidated half of that position today. One thing I have learned over the last 10 years or so...."DO NOT ATTEMPT TO OUT-SMART THE MARKET !"....Fundamentaly these stocks appear cheap however the sector is so far out of favor that the pain may not be over. One nagging question that I have that I am hopping somebody on this thread may be able to help me out with....that is...What the heck happened to oil back in the early 80's....These stocks went from the 100's to a buck or so.....that scares me. Can someone help me out with this issue. Just imagine how many "smart" traders/investors averaged down on margin during that time. I like to be in control of my positions....it feels as though these things have control of me!!!! Regards, Mark