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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (18712)	7/25/1998 1:39:00 AM
From: space cadet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev, I agree with you that we are short-term oversold and will probably rally some here. CSCO, then geocities ipo, then DELL may be enough to cause one last rally. But after that I see nothing but desolation for the small cap hi-techs for a long long time. I predict most of these small caps will be under 10 dollars, probably around 5 a year from now. No fast recovery for asia or for the semi's and semi equipment makers. It will all boil down to '99 earnings. Give it a p/e of 25-35 if the company is growing nicely, or 15 if its earnings are unchanged or falling. I predict many of these companies will be 5 bucks or less, or bankrupt, along with the many dumb investors who held these stocks too long because they didn't want to share with uncle sam. No one is as against taxes as I am but stupid is as stupid does... I won't consider going long these stocks in the semi's, semi equipment or disk drive industries till next summer at the earliest. I see alot of these companies that earned over a buck this past year and will earn under a buck this year or next. Other than the next 30 days I see pain and suffering for these industries for the next year. Do you agree?