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Technology Stocks : 3DFX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (5792)	7/25/1998 8:09:00 AM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16960

Message sent to Webmistress Subject: Vote for Patrick Grinsell (trial member) I've gathered from reading the boards, that SI is awarding free memberships to 100 trial members receiving support from your regular members. I would like to cast a vote for Patrick Grinsell, to be found on the 3Dfx thread. Patrick Grinsell has posted some very good contributions to the thread, well researched and well written. I hope that his presence can continue. On a separate point, a toast to the webmistress [cheers, :o) ] for having one of the best sites on the Web. Best Regards, Jim Nickel End of Mail to Webmistress

To: Patrick Grinsell who wrote (5792)	7/27/1998 10:52:00 AM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16960

Fair value VS. Stock price. Let's clear up a few things. This is mostly a response to Patrick G. But it applies to some of others two. Patrick you said: Sun Tzu 7/24: <<"I'm down 2 points, but I'm not worried because TDFX will be in 40s by the new year". (really no personal shot here I'm just using an example) Then reality is thrown out of the window.>> Sun Tzu 7/23: << I also said that based on my model fair value for TDFX is around $45 (or at least $23 if you use a very conservative model). So add it up for yourself. >> Quick question Sun Tzu. When exactly did YOU throw reality out the window? I think everybody here is old enough and can think for themselves. A better idea would be to argue the actual merrits of the stock rather than buy or sell recommendations. You have a good analytical mind so why not put it to good use. If you absolutely feel compelled to save people from themselves try the Yahoo board. It's like a daycare center over there and they need a little handholding. Patrick I never said that TDFX will be $45 by new year. It might. We may be at the bottom right now. I just can't predict the bottom. There is sometimes a huge gap between the fair value for the company and the stock price (both up or down). This is where opportunity lies. I stand by both of my statements. That TDFX has an intrinsic value much higher than its present stock price, does not mean that this value will be realized in a month, quarter, or a year. Although as your time horizon expands, then the stock will move closer to its real value. So $45 in a year to 18 months is not unreasonable, if (and this is a very big if) the fundamentals of the company do not take a turn for the worse during this time. It is not that I expect those fundamentals to become worse, it is that I think 18 months is too long to extrapolate current conditions into. Joe C. had an excellent post on what he expects for the stock. Reasonable expectations are what bring us profits. The problem is that in the case of stock market, it is not enough for you to have a resonable expectation, but the majority of the current share holders have to see it your way too. Stock market is the ultimate in democracy; the majority rules, right or wrong. When the expectations don't match the reality, then your two choices are to a) change your expectations to match the reality, or b) try to change the reality to match your expectations (much more difficult to do). As for putting my analytical mind to good use, if you still insist on fighting the trend, then read my next post. In it I offer a plan for die hard TDFX fans to turn the stock around. Regards, Sun Tzu