Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (11698)	7/25/1998 2:42:00 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Overall the revisions turned out not much changed from previous estimates. I think we will see a flurry of revisions as this quarter's numbers are announced. Covey, CFO, said that sales were expected to drop significantly this quarter due to seasonal slowness and increased competition. It was implied that most of the erosion would be from temporary seasonal factors. But it was also admitted that the revised, more competitive web sites of Barnes & Noble and Borders were seen as big improvements over their previous sites and that the increased ad campaigns were more threatening. I think competition will start to impact Amazon.com significantly over the next 2-3 quarters. The reason is that the competitors now have substantially more competitive sites so that when advertising draws people to them, they will have a greater tendency to browse and buy. B & N and Borders still lag in the areas of book reviews and suggestions for alternate books. They also lag in user profiling and use of active page content, but that is not apparent to the new visitor or infrequent customer. Since the software to do these things is off the shelf, they should be able to come up to speed in that capability within a few quarters. With sales slowing from the high rates of the past. the first real impacts of the major competitors combined with a more saturated base of current internet users (ad bombarded 'til they are sick of it), and increased outlays for distribution and product expansion, I think the future earnings picture is likely to be upset as this quarters numbers roll in. Page hit surveys and comments from the competitors will be early indicators of these factors. Another thing I am interested in finding out more about is just how well Barnes & Nobles 'Associates Program' is doing. This is another area that Amazon.com has held a huge lead on the competitors. I doubt that B & N will quickly rival Amazon in this important marketing strategy, but the fact that there is now serious competition could impact Amazon,com's plans for growth and profits - (I have seen several other small competitors that use the technique but discount those efforts).