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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (13099)	7/25/1998 5:20:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Chris, I think you are right at looking at the Dow, the Dow is the meat and potatoes of American Industry. These are the companies that drive the REAL economy. The techs have high betas and swing wildly away from the mean, they also have far less strength in their balance sheets and price/sales ratios and tend to sway the SPX off the mean also. The Dow is the publicly quoted figure and is more respondent to crowd behavior. It was much easier for me on an elliot basis to see a completed 5 wave move from the June 15 lows on the DOW, while the nasdaq & spx looked like they could be completing a fifth wave of wave 3. If you look at the Dow Jones 65 we made a double top. I think you are right in your caution about the markets. CA did a big dump on what Elliott might call a failed fifth wave (I see tons of double top charts like this) , and the Dow has a similar chart pattern. There were peak bullish sentiment indicators on the II survey and the rydex ursa/otc+nova - this indicator was at an historic high. This is usually indicative of market tops - ST or LT. I believe a major sell signal has already been rang with summation index turning down and I think 1130 on the SPX is critical support. The Summation turned down on the trendline off the July and October peaks - you could possibly negate the jan-april rallye as an anomaly on the trend. Fibonnaci turning points have been pretty good at calling tops and bottoms, there were a #of fibonacci turning points around June 15 (144, 89, 55 days) , There were 2 around July 21 (89 from 4/22 peak & 55 from 5/26 drop out of the indecision triangle) The June 15th bottom was significant bottom in price & sentiment. I remember a lot of fear that Monday morning from the news commentator on the early news. 55 days from that would be 8/10, that day might be a great buying opportunity. bwdik, bb