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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (22292)	7/25/1998 11:31:00 AM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Tommaso: it's really hard for me to be bearish when I can find so much to buy at book value that draws a dividend higher than a treasury. Whole sectors- REITs, utilities, microcaps, small banks. I can find massive insider buying in all these sectors. Why bother shorting when you can get an 8% dividend from a utility/bond CEF holding stocks at book value, or 7% from a REIT CEF? Or 8% from Royce preferreds? or close to 8% from Gabelli's convertible fund preferred? Royce and gabelli cefs are really safe- they buy back their own shares in a market collapse so there's little downside risk. Somebody, somewhere, seems determined to drive my money-market return down to 2.5% and hide massive economic inflation while doing it. My gut feeling is that staying in cash is bad, but shorting in a heavily manipulated market is bad too.

To: Tommaso who wrote (22292)	7/25/1998 11:59:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

You don't sound like a Perma Bear to me, right or wrong you seem to be a market timer more than a BEAR <G> You sound like a Hedger that tends to bias for up or down trends as you see them. ------------------- I won't drop any names here to start crap, but on SI I've found some people with their own threads who do nothing but talk short, short, short. Some of them are very articulate and developed a considerable following. In checking their track records ( when I can find timely posts, that are not after the fact ) I find their track record is dismal and that if they actually made the bets they proposed they would be in the poor house. They never seem to go long on anything but maybe one or two stocks , and those tend to be dogs that go no where. They seem to be Perma Bears, who are convinced there is more money made shorting than going long, even in a strong bull market ! I shudder at the thought what some of these do to new comers to the market. At times I went onboard and did some debunking. Lo and behold the poor suckers losing their rear were the first ones to want to burn me at the stake, so I quit trying to protect them from their own misguided fixation on shorting. --------------------- A point I was trying to make is. I noticed that this thread gets looked at like it's the Godzilla of all BEAR threads, when in fact it's more market timing and were we may short we don't have a fixation on shorting there are plenty of Threads on SI that deserve that title more than we do. Jim