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To: phbolton who wrote (36490)	7/25/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: ratan lal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

My congratulations to LD, SB, DG, PHB, TS and all others on this thread. This is the most lively thread of all that I have visited. Each person presents his/her facts, theories and opinions well and strongly and without hesitation. Competition for attention to their case is strong but the attacks on one anothers case are without malice and are in fact very refreshing. I have been out of MU for some time because I simply cant make up my mind about the DRAM biz and its profitability. But i continue to read all the posts. And I shall be back. Thats both a promise and a threat. ratan

To: phbolton who wrote (36490)	7/25/1998 12:39:00 PM
From: Chas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

The spot is higher than contract prices for pc100 product, that indicates no dumping of this very high demand product, and with the pc demand will continue increasing memory content per system as it is now, and with the fall season getting ready to start, a stability of sorts is occuring. I have already heard internal allocation plans and the Koreans are committed so far to cut backs and one week shutdowns each month thru the end of the year. They initial said it would take 90 to 120 days to make any dent in the glut, but with July being the 2nd month into it, August shut down could keep the output down going into September which is always a strong month for Demand. I truly believe most suppliers are short on pc100 deliveries and if the market continues to increase demand we could continue to see stability for several months, then it will depend on all those factors out there to see what happens next. Everyone has talked about die shrinks and increase yields, and it will just depend on total demand and how much each supplier decides to build, a real tough guess right now. I know this, everyone is losing money... and the bleeding is getting worse and at some point each supplier must decide how much they can stand before making a financial decison to continue or cut back. With all the news from many suppliers announcing these types of cut backs etc,. maybe the market output will shrink enough to stabilize and eventually turn around. Good trading.

To: phbolton who wrote (36490)	7/25/1998 5:54:00 PM
From: sam dram	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Let me correct some of your points 1. yes micron is losing tons of money, probally 200 million/qtr and when the TI deal is done in sept. add another 200+ million/qtr. 2. essential correct but all dram manufactures have been using laser repair for years, without repair yield would be 1-5% 3. a pc on a chip will not have embedded dram for 10+ years, the economics are against it. 4. the dram market will rebound but probally not intill micron is out of the market(probally 12-18 months)