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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike from La. who wrote (26508)	7/25/1998 2:24:00 PM
From: Richard D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Mike, I like your posts. They're not as pie in the sky as mine. Keep up the historical perspective and the reality check of today's situation. They say La Nina may produce mucho hurricanes (I suppose this Fall is the season). Do you think this will affect offshore rigs as H. Andrew did in the past? My investment is in PTEN, a land driller, so I'm hoping they aren't as affected by such a scenario, though they're in hurricane territory. PTEN should also benefit by your earlier post describing the capping of old money losing wells and the need to drill new ones (vs. opening the old inefficient/dying ones,) when oil returns to $16+/barrel. Regards, Richard

To: Mike from La. who wrote (26508)	7/25/1998 2:47:00 PM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 95453

Mike, How many rigs are currently operating in the US today? Do you know how productive they are compared to back when we had 4700 rigs?

To: Mike from La. who wrote (26508)	7/25/1998 3:20:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Nice post Mike from La. ...there is reason to be cautious, but the gloom & doom is way over done and this sector (when the smoke clears) will be way oversold to ''historic'' buying opportunity levels. I agree with your terminology of calling this a ''blip,'' this is 100% correct. But, I no longer challenge or disagree that the ''reality'' of the market sentiment and it's corresponding over-reaction in continuing to sell of this sector; so I am not buying these dips on margin; but instead am raising cash from every possible source for what will be the bottom. I will start averaging in with cash on 15% dips from current prices and will buy with margin and use call options when oil stabilizes above $16. I still say that there is no logical or fundamental reason for these stocks to go lower, as the worst-case scenario of future events is all ready priced into today's prices and that this is a ''blip'' not a fundamental change in the industry. But we are seeing an irrational market reacting to a total price proxy to Crude Oil which is unquestionably being manipulated by short ''Trader'' pressure on crude futures and the mis-interpretation of storage supply info. So why fight it ? I'm just waiting for the smoke to clear; however I intend to beat the crowd to the party, because if we see crude explode up due to surprisingly positive OPEC cuts, let alone if it happens simultaneous to options expiration and/or positive API numbers, and/or simultaneous or shortly after a major overall market correction -- this sector will explode. Money will flow into here like Niagra Falls... It will be harder to catch an exploding rocket than a falling knife, one could very easily see a 20% run in days as there is massive amounts of money waiting to flow here when crude rises - but, as I now believe; not before.