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Technology Stocks : Loral Space & Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Valueman who wrote (4060)	7/25/1998 4:35:00 PM
From: Mr. Proofsheet	Respond to of 10852

Copied this message from Readware over at the MF. Hope Geoff doesn't mind, he can probably use the rest Readware's numbers match mine exactly (LOL). ******************************************************* ubject: Loral FY 2000 Earnings estimates Date: Sat, Jul 25, 1998 13:41 EDT From: Readware Message-id: <1998072517414100.NAA26907@ladder03.news.aol.com> Below is a table for one way of considering Loral's year-end 2000 business performance. We assume, for purposes of reference, a 37% growth rate in year 2001 over year 2000, and a 29% growth rate in year 2002 over 2001. The year 2002 growth assumption is exclusive of Cyberstar-Skyrbridge. Our RONTA and Discount Rate valuations imply, on a froward looking basis, however, C-Skybridge. **************************************************************************************************** FY 2000 estimates GEO transponder revenues: 477 transponders [For purposes of calculation we use a 71% weighted average utilization and $1.45 million/year weighted average revenue/transponder, and a 33% US tax rate] Loral Orion: 99 transponders Revenues $140 million (EBITDA $112 million) SatMex: 82 transponders Revenues: $60 million [Loral portion] (EBITDA: $43 million [Loral portion] Skynet: 296 transponders Revenues: $335 million (EBITDA: $271 million) (We assume a 71 average "fill" rate. For purposes of reference, Loral's pro forma assumes an 85) Cyberstar: (lease off Telstar 5 & 7) Revenues: $48 million (EBITDA: $33 million) GEO transponder totals: Revenues: $583 MILLION EBITDA: $459 MILLION Net Earnings: $391 million (net earnings and net earning per share are exclusive of start-up, development costs, and inter-company elimination). Space Systems Loral: Revenues: $1.63 billion Net earnings: $66 million (EBITDA: $89 million) Globalstar Revenues: $988 million (EBITDA: $899 million) Net earnings (Loral portion): $124 million (Revenues $415 million [EBITDA $373 million) For purposes of reference, Loral's pro forma projects $1.344 billion in revenues and an EBITDA $1.229 billion, with a net income of $637 million) ***************************************************************************************************** FY 2000 estimate totals Total Revenues: $2.628 billion EBITDA: $921 million Net earnings: $581 million Total shares: 300 million (Loral has 331 million shares fully diluted; we assume 300 million as the FY 2000 divisor) Net earnings/share: $1.94 Valuation measures: RONTA (net operating income/net tangible assets): 28% (RONTA rises with the utilization of new satellites, and is higher as a percentage the smaller the satellite base from which the growth in utilization emerges). ROE: 34% EBITDA multiple: 15 (We use 15 as commensurate with a RONTA of 28%). Projected FY 2000 year-end share price: $76 (as a multiple of 2001 EBIDTA) Required return on equity: (13.7%) WACC (Weighted after-tax average cost of capital): 12% Discount rate (12%)