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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: epicure who wrote (13128)	7/26/1998 12:43:00 AM
From: Chris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

My gut feeling is that ANY ONE LONG in this mkt should sell into any rally. I would even sell out with a slight loss. Please be careful. We dont know the magnitude of this decline, HOWEVER, most of things I've looked at say, "there is more decline to come". If you consider this week's 400 pt drop as the first down leg, then I think it's serious trouble if the worse is yet to come. 1) Dont fight the trend. As Bob G. stated, it's the GREED that makes us do STUPID things. Don't let that human instinct overcome your trade plan. ====== Couple more thoughts: 1) Asian Crisis has not gotten better. In fact, I would think it has gotten worse. Especially with the latest Hiromoto episodes and the YEN. 2) As Investors - who buy on dips on "undervalued" issues. THERE ARE NONE. Everyone I've seen has said, everything is TOO HIGH and overvalued. Although as "momentum traders", we dont care. You must acknowledge that the majority of investors in America are "buy n' hold investors". Thus, if everything is "overvalued," then NO ONE IS BUYING. Momentum trading only works when the "bigger" players (instituions and l/t investors) are BUYING. THEY ARE NOT. 3) GREENSPAN comments has some neg. effects on the mkt. Believe it or not, American's investors DO listen to him. This further pushes the idea that the investors ARE NOT BUYING ON DIPS either. ============================= What am I saying? I'm saying that we have a lot of NEGATIVES in the mkt to deal with. Furthermore, the mkt has NO ONE buying. Instituions are not buying. Avg Investor doing buy n' hold are not buying on dips. Finally, the magnitude of the DECLINES SO FAR, have really been BIG. I'm not kidding. Cruical supports in the DOW have been broken with LITTLE or no "resistance". My final fear: PANIC SELLING. =================================== Again, I'm not here to scare anyone. I just want everyone to just sit down and think about the OVERALL trading ENVIRONMENT. I think the answers are clear. It's just whether you carry through the truth and executing those ideas. ===================================