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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: VICTORIA GATE, MD who wrote (61156)	7/26/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 186894

I'd like to poll the thread: Will we see 70 or 100 next? Just post "poll: 70", or "poll: 100".The stock is now drifting in the low 80s. I count 6 times in 1997 and 1998 when the stock has reached this level, gone horizontal for a few weeks, and returned to 70. In fact you could have made a lot of money in the last 18 months with the simple strategy of going long whenever the stock hits 70, then shorting at 80, and waiting to cover at 70, and repeating. It looks to me like this would have earned you 120 points (10 points up, 10 points down, and 6 round trips so far) over the last 1.5 years. Even on the couple of occasions when the stock has gone up to about 100, it has eventually returned to 70. So, are we going to repeat this pattern, or is it different this time? Eventually, I see a doubling or tripling in the stock (like the 1995-1996 move). I made INTC and ZNLAT half my portfolio in early June, when people were saying silly things like, "CPUs are commodities, and AMD is a serious competitor, and everyone has all the processing power they'll ever need." That kind of talk (in addition to the chart) convinced me we were at a bottom. I'm sure of the eventual huge move up, but I'm very unsure of the time frame. We'll keep returning to 70 until something breaks us out of this trading range. Will we have to wait till Merced for the breakout? Will Y2K help or hurt? Will we have a recession first? In January 1998, guidance was that the second half would see the upturn. Now, they say that the third quarter will be essentially flat, and the big upturn will happen in the 4th quarter. Will this happen, or are we going to see continuing pressure on margins, and flat revenue, into 1999? So, what's next: 70 or 100?