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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Richard D who wrote (26555)7/26/1998 4:24:00 PM
From: Big Dog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
The companies should not decline in value lower than the market value of their rigs. If they do, they will likely be bought out by others.

But a rig is an unusual asset. If there is no work for the rig, and prospects for work are dim -- this is no longer an asset. It's a liability.

It is one of the amazing things in life to see the price of a rig rise and fall to extreme levels.

I give the example during the 80's when we sold the same rig two times in one year...once at 112 million and once at 8 million. Same rig, different oil prices.

big
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To: Richard D who wrote (26555)7/26/1998 4:26:00 PM
From: JZGalt  Respond to of 95453
 
Richard,

You might be interested in some of the charts at the website. I just linked them in, but they show the p/e's based on 12 month forward estimates as a way of trying to determine where and when the companies become cheap. I've taken a look at these in the past and this time "cheap" has become "cheaper". Perhaps this could be one piece in the puzzle.




To: Richard D who wrote (26555)7/26/1998 4:30:00 PM
From: JZGalt  Respond to of 95453
 
Richard,

You might want to look at some of those charts BidDog mentioned at the website. I just linked them in (lazy afternoon reading on the porch). Anyway they show how the p/e based on 12 month forward earnings moves with the underlying stocks that are in the two portfolios we are following. This might give you some gauge on "value" to use. Of course as we have shown in the past 3 weeks, just because something is "cheap" doesn't mean it cannot get cheaper.