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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (6379)	7/26/1998 10:50:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Japan is suffering from utter stagnation of capital, which is not loaned by banks, and saved by people in the wrong place -- forced govt bond funds paying zip% Japan has an accelerating deflation problem... the real rate of interest is cost interest minus inflation... but that equals flat 1.7% minus a negative growing number... so they have rapidly rising real rates... meanwhile people save like machines in the wrong place in an economy that is modeled as an export engine, not a consumptive trickle down waterfall... on widespread basis now people are just waiting for prices to stabilize before they spend anything, all horrified that their homes are worth shit these construction stimulus packages are disastrous, steered to cronies and often f---ing joke useless projects, only adding to debt with no returns... see Tokyo Airport project, roads for farmers to nowhere... also, these tax cuts are costly in aggregate but picaune at individual level... is a $500 per household stimulus going to stimulate anything but a new microwave? ... all are stupid and cowardly acts of desperation by leaders who have no concept of anything but the old bullshit fully agreed by moronic consensus... the national debt now exceeds their shrinking GDP I noted in Barrons a comment in Asian article that once every few days a CEO in a bankrupt firm (usually bank) commits suicide in front of Tokyo commuter train... after I made the comment yesterday Japan needs to reflate their deflating economy... they lost their chance to reflate with printed money years ago at lower ultimate cost... now currency is down badly from stealth depression... this forces the govt to reflate with far far more printed money than would have been needed before... they must encourage spending, not hording... they must remove catastrophic forced investment into govt bond pensions, where it is not put to work one iota... they must by whatever means introduce inflation, via printed money, increased tax incentives for widespread spending, removed subsidies to crony crooks, more open choices of foreign goods (expensive)... they must liquidate on a massive unprecedented historic level their 1000's of dead standing banks, which will unleash untold solid assets to work... they must backtrack all the Hoover moronic stupid tax increases... THEY MUST REFLATE AND LIQUIFY Hoover just got replaced by Jerry Ford... only idea Ford ever came up with was the "Whip Inflation Now" button... anyone remember that joke??? ... now Obuchi can start the presses and put the Japanese mfg engine to work producing "Whip Deflation Now" buttons... no radical idea concepts have ever emerged from consensus builder politicians in my long memory of history... Japan's political pool is savagely bereft of ideas, initiative, risktaking... all the thought process is taking place in academia, which has utter contempt for the politicians who in their words "have destroyed our country"... sounds like an ethnic slur, but having come from the computer industry at Digital, I always noted industry rags commenting that Japan never produced a single innovative piece of software, and rarely an innovative device that was not invented in the US... they beat us to market after viewing submitted patents in Libary of Congress... not innovative culture --- now viewed as truism Japanese companies are still judged on their market share, not profitability... still using zero as cost of capital in their business models... this thing is so so so so so deeply cultural... they dont come clean on bad loans... they have no concept of Anglo-Saxon beauties like "liquidated inventories, massive layoffs, bankruptcies, debt writeoffs"... all these are alien... they have the idea of Bridge Bank, but no internal constitution physically to do what needs to be done... they talk of our 1980 RTC, a thing of beauty... but theirs is 2-3 times larger can you imagine simultaneously 2/3 of the following bankrupt: Citicorp, Chase Manhattan, First Union, Wells Fargo, NationsBank, etc??? ... now imagine 30% of all Hong Kong property secured by commercial loans held by Jap banks, all scores of huge industrial complexes in Asian Tiger economies secured by commercial loans held by Jap banks... GE Capital has begun to spending spree with $40 billion... neocolonization has begun all Asian Tiger economies have modeled themselves after the Japanese economy, all exporting engines... combined they undermined the Japanese economy they are still living in 1950 post-war reconstruction era... their economy may soon to devastated by the New Global Economy that few old school experts admit exists... we have a worldwide excess capacity of historic proportions... if Japan doesnt start consuming, they will be consumed much more to elaborate, but only if anybody asks on what... I am not a professional economist, just read everything in sight on Asia in main publications... lots of opinions, some exaggerated, some a little off, not an expert in anything but statistical analysis later, Jim