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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4607)	7/26/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Respond to of 9523

Big Pharma Report: 7/26/98 - Big Pharma (-3.6%) followed the Dow down (-4.3%). -Only AMGN (+4.2%) and WLA (+0.4%) gained for the week. -After reaching 118 1/2 on Monday, PFE was buffeted by MRK's (-8.9%) disappointing EPS and ended the week with a modest 1.9% decline.... responding to an upbeat analyst meeting. -In July, Big Pharma is up 3.2% as compared to a flat Dow . PFE has increased 4.4%. -In the YTD race, the "Big 3" held their positions with #1 WLA (+93.0%) followed by SGP (+57.3%) and PFE (+52.2%). Mutual PFriends Highlights of an interview with a fund manager with major PFE holdings (Source: Bloomberg) Fund: Glenmede Trust Manager: Scott Abernethy Date: 7/24/98 PFE Holdings (7/98): 1,600,000 Current Value (7/24/98): $181,600,000 PFE Comments: "They're sitting on top of the world, essentially...They had a great quarter and they have a great pipeline".% Have PFun! BigKNY3 .

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4607)	7/26/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Anthony Wong	Respond to of 9523

INTERVIEW-India's Orchid to sell Viagra ingredient Sunday July 26, 2:20 am Eastern Time By Suresh Seshadri MADRAS, India, July 26 (Reuters) - India's Orchid Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals Ltd (ORCD.BO) said on Sunday it expects to soon start exports of sildenafil citrate, the active ingredient in U.S. drug maker Pfizer Inc's (PFE - news) anti-impotence drug Viagra. The company would direct its sales at markets not covered by Pfizer's patent, Orchid managing director K. Raghavendra Rao told Reuters in an interview. ''We have got the necessary licences from the Government of India to both manufacture and export sildenafil citrate, made by a new process.... Imports of bulk raw materials have begun and we expect to start exports in end-August,'' Rao said. The six-year-old Orchid Chemicals has a 330-tonne-per-annum drug manufacturing facility near Madras in India's southern Tamil Nadu state to make a range of oral and injectable antibiotics for export to European and Far Eastern markets. Rao said Orchid would initially export the Viagra ingredient in bulk to formulators who planned to sell the drug in the South American and East European markets. The company had also received trade enquiries from China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh and North America. ''We will basically export it to markets outside the patent regime, which is well over 140 countries right now,'' Rao said. Analysts estimate the global market for Viagra and its clones to be well over $5 billion, with prevailing international prices for bulk sildenafil citrate being put at anywhere between $3,000 and $20,000 per kg. Market researcher IMS Health said last week that Viagra had broken all records for a new drug and is expected to notch up sales of at least $1 billion in its first year on the market. Pfizer Inc said last Friday in New York that it planned to launch Viagra in Europe by late August or early September and in Japan early next year. Rao said his company had yet to estimate the revenues it would generate through sales of sildenafil citrate. ''It's a little too early to say what sort of volumes we're looking at and what prices we hope to get.... Once the first consignment has been shipped we should have a better picture,'' Rao said. ''But whatever we earn on this drug this year would be a bonus, after all it had not even been a part of Orchid's drug dictionary till five months ago.'' Rao said his company expected a 25 to 30 percent rise in turnover in 1998/99. The company posted a net profit of 340.78 million rupees ($8.01 million) in 1997/98 on sales of 2.42 billion rupees. It is also awaiting government approval for its proposal to brand and market a Viagra clone in India's domestic market. The company is currently setting up a 300 million rupee plant at Irungattukottai near Madras to manufacture branded prescription drugs including cephalosporin-based antibiotics and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Rao said the facility would also be used to make its Viagra-like formulation for the domestic market once the approvals were obtained. ''If we get our permissions in time, then our first priority for the sildenafil citrate would be the domestic market, but we have enough capacity to produce the drug for both export and local sales.'' Orchid will however face stiff competition for its Viagra clone in the domestic market. The Business Line newspaper reported last month that two other Indian drug companies Cipla Pharmaceuticals and Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd (RANB.BO) had received approval from the Drug Controller of India to manufacture sildenafil citrate. ($ equals 42.52) biz.yahoo.com

To: BigKNY3 who wrote (4607)	7/26/1998 10:29:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9523

The Peabody Report: 7/26/98 The Peabody Report is intended to foster conversation on the PFEr Board. Comments are welcome and encouraged. Invest only after conducting your own research. Have PFun! BigKNY3 __________________________________________________________ The Peabody Report: 7/26/98 Peabody Model Trend Prediction Based on historical PFE patterns, the Peabody Model predicts the following trend direction: After setting a Peabody Valley on 7/06/98 (105.63), PFE reached a pending Peabody Peak on 7/14/98 (120.56). After missing a Peabody Valley by .08 on Thursday (111), Da Model predicts that a new Peabody Peak of 126.59 will be reached by August 11, 1998. Commentary The strong relationship among the general market, Big Pharma and PFE was shown by the PFE action last week. Despite good news, PFE will not move up when the Dow corrects by 4.3% and MRK EPS disappoints. Since March, 1998, PFE has received strong support with 7.9% declines off the Peabody Peaks. The predicted Peabody has come and passed. Accordingly, the target date has been revised. Since it is based primarily on historical trends and Mr. Peabody "gut-feels", the Peabody Model should always be placed in context of the market environments and anticipated news. As evidenced by the mythical Peabody Portfolio (see section below), the Peabody Model works particularly well for PFE investors with a "buy, hold, and buy more at the Valley" investing strategy. New or pfuture PFErs could consider investing 50% immediately and investing the remainder at near Peabody Valleys. ......................................PFE.........................% Chg from...............# Days .....................................Date.........Price.......Last Price (7/24/98)......From Today Last Peabody Valley: .... 7/06/98 ....105.63.......... -6.9% ...................-20 Last Peabody Peak:..... 7/14/98......120.56..........+6.2% ...................-12 Pending Forecasted Next Peak ......8/11/98....126.59..........+11.5%.................. 16 Peabody Valley Strike Price...............110.92.........-2.3% Forecasted Next Valley...................... 107.75.........-5.1% (If Model is Wrong) ______________________________________________ Peabody Short-term PForecasts Peabody Short-Term PForecast (7/19/98): PFE: 115.75, DJ: 9,338: Beats me!!!... Only kidding..This should be a very big news week. Expect a strong Viagra Rx report on Monday, a boast by the MRK earnings report, potential PFE Board news on Thursday ( a request for additional authorized shares), and the PFE annual analyst meeting on Friday. Da Gut-feel: A strong PFE week with a close above 120. Evaluation of Peabody PForecast: Viagra Rxs declined, MRK disappointed, the Board did not announce anything yet...Thumbs down Peabody PForecast Record (71 weeks): 46-25 (65%) _________________________________________________________ Peabody Short-Term PForecast (7/26/98): PFE: 113.50, DJ: 8,937: PFE will once again be driven by the market direction and Viagra news. Monday should be the key day to determine the current direction. Da Gut Feel: The general market could bring PFE down to a new Valley..The Peabody Portfolio has an open market order@110 1/2. ___________________________________________ Peabody Portfolio Total return:........................................+93.0% PFE @ 113.5 Annualized return:...............................+85.3% % of Peabody purchases in the black... 100% Since April 1, 1998, 1998, the Peabody Portfolio has added 900 PFE shares to the mythical Peabody Portfolio. (Average price 105.30) The Peabody Portfolio consists of 19 aggressive PFE purchase recommendations listed on the PFEr Board since August 14, 1996. To date, the Portfolio has purchased 3,500 PFE shares at an average price of $58.81 (only 3.2% off the subsequent next PFE Valleys). ________________________________________ # PFE Shares Purchased:.......... 3,500 Average Price of Purchases:....... $58.81 Total Costs: ...............................$205,838 Total Market Value:.....................$397,250 Total Potential Profit:...................$191,413 Date............#..........Purchase Purchased...Shares...Price 8/14/96:..... 200 ........$36.38 10/25/96:....200 .........$40.44 12/4/96:......200..........$41.69 12/12/96:.....200.........$40.50 12/16/96:.....200.........$40.44 12/31/96:....200..........$41.50 1/2/97:........200.........$40.94 1/28/97: ......200..........$42.38 2/28/97:.......200...........$45.69 3/24/97:.......200...........$44.88 3/27/97:.......200...........$42.81 3/31/97:........200..........$42.56 8/8/97:..........200..........$55.13 4/16/98:........200...........$97.00 4/27/98:........200...........$113.00 5/7/98:..........200...........$107.50 5/15/98:.........100..........$105.00 5/27/98 :........100 .........$101.75 7/06/98 :........100 .........$106.00 Total:............3,500...........$58.81 ____________________________________________ Suggested PFE Buying Levels The following suggested PFE buying levels are based on The Peabody Model. The aggressive buying price level is used in adding shares to The Peabody Portfolio. However, depending upon market conditions an immediate purchase could be made at any time: Aggressive PFE buying levels:..................$106 to $111 Conservative PFE buying levels: ...............$99 to $105 ________________________________________ PFuture Actions That Will Effect PFE Trends Viagra Rx trends:..................................... Every Monday throughout 1998 News of Viagra adverse reactions and drug interactions: ...................................Throughout 1998 International approval of Viagra:.................September- December, 1998 Initial reports of Viagra international sales.......October, 1998 FDA re-review of Zeldox: .............................. Late 1998 Launch of Zeldox:.........................................1999 (?) PFE R&D Meeting........................................October 29, 1998 ED news in the media: ................................Throughout 1998 _______________________________________________ Peabody V-Files Viagra sales for the second quarter, 1998 were $411 million, the highest recorded sales for a new pharmaceutical product during its first three months on the market. Analysts estimate that Viagra will have 1998 sales of $0.933 billion, a 36.5% increase over earlier estimates. __ PFE Stock Splits PFE has split three times in the last ten years ( 2/91, 6/95, and 6/97). The Wayback Machine indicates that PFE usually announces a 2-1 split if PFE trade above 80 for 90 consecutive days. In the January, 1998 survey of 22 PFErs, only 43% felt that PFE will split in 1998. At the PFE Annual Meeting on April 23, 1998, the PFE CEO stated they will consider requesting additional authorized shares from shareholders later this year. Bottom line, a 3-1 PFE split announcement will be made in late 1998 or early 1999. A request for additional authorized shares was apparently not made by the Board on July 23, 1998.