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Non-Tech : Cendant Corporation (NYSE:CD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apakhabar who wrote (1259)	7/27/1998 8:18:00 AM
From: VALUESPEC	Respond to of 3627

Apakhabar, maybe you are right. Maybe I should be waiting until after the audit comes out to buy, and after Forbes is booted, and after the ABI deal is done. Really, it is a judgement call. I will not get a margin call @ $ 13.00. My reason for selling at least some by $ 13.00b is that I do not believe it should go that low. If it does, I am at least wrong in that respect. I don't believe in holding a stock as it is falling. That is why, despite liking CD for some time, I have not been crushed on it yet. However, when CD fell this last time, I loaded up again. I feel the clean audit is the most important item at this time and the other decisions you mention hindge upon the results of the audit. For instance, the company will probably wait until after the audit is out to relieve Mr. Forbes, depending on all the information found in the audit. Regarding ABI, if the stock is likely to rebound with a clear audit, then maybe it is best to worry about that after the final audit is completed. CD could do many things to prop up the stock price. Following are some of them: 1) They could pay all cash for the ABI purchase and completely avoid dilution. 2) They could have a stock buy-back with the intention of buying stock up to a certain price (the price at which the purchase would be accretive), and and only pay in stock the amount that is appropriate to make the purchase accretive. 3) Announce a dutch auction in which they will immediately begin buying stock on the open market up to X dollars, or some other type of impressive stock buy-back. Note: Stock buybacks can not legally be done until AFTER the final audit. 4) They could announce that they will be spinning of the divisions that do not fit in the plans now that they know the REAL number's from Forbes paritially "fake" company, CUC. As you can see, there are many things that can be done to help prop the stock up. Most will have to wait until the final audit is out. Also, it is hard to make such important decisions without knowing exactly where you stand financially. I believe CD will see $ 20+ easily, but maybe I'm wrong. I certainly haven't been doing real well with CD so far, but I am up nearly 100% since January 1st for my entire portfolio, and I was up about 50% for 1997. CD: ~ $ 15.00a VALUESPEC

To: Apakhabar who wrote (1259)	7/27/1998 9:59:00 AM
From: Diogeron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3627

Thanks for your thoughtful post on CD. I've been looking at CD for some time since Dessauer recommended it a couple of months back. I was thinking of jumping in this week, but you make a compelling argument for patience. Think I'll stay on the sidelines for now as you suggest.

To: Apakhabar who wrote (1259)	7/28/1998 12:19:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3627

<<ABI deal has gotten less notice here than it deserves. Because the stock price is so weak the deal will cost CD more shares and thus be more dilutive.>> I did some quick & dirty back of envelope calc's and came up with a post merger PE of 16 to 17 based on 15.50 share price, CE @ 1.07 & ABI @ 2.55 earning in 98 IF the numbers are real, and IF the growth materializes at 20% Henry recently indicated that's not bad. I'm a toe in the water long expecting to add to position on dips. Agree that more potential bad news and uncertainty out there and would like to see more discussion of those on this board. Unfortunately, once the risk and uncertainty are favorably resolved, the shares will no longer be a bargain - if they are now. You pays your money and takes your chances. BTW, good post. Bob