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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike Milde who wrote (9692)7/27/1998 9:49:00 AM
From: Reginald Middleton  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74651
 
<I'm not sure what a "traditional PE strategy" is, but so many people claim that historical methods of evaluating a company won't work anymore. Regardless of where you think the earnings will come from, the stock price will always be a result of people's perception of future earnings.>

That is not true. People don't move the market, large institutions do. Large institutions (at least sophisticated ones) do not follow earnings. I have proven this in several stocks by graphing the correlation of analysts' consensus estimates from IBES and First Call, the biggest in the consensus business, against the market values of several companies. You can't argue with historical facts.



To: Mike Milde who wrote (9692)7/28/1998 1:22:00 AM
From: ed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74651
 
First, I know you won't agree any of my points, that is no surprise .
The price of PC probably will not drop too much, unless more integration. But you forget one most important point is that the income of average family will continue to rise. Just tell me how many family do not have a TV nowadays, and how many family has more than one TV, and what is the average price of TV ? and the average price of PC ????
As to the performance of PC, well , I know the speed of CPU will continue to be increased as process technology continue to be improved from .25 um to .18um , or
to .09 um, or the CU process...etc, and as more complex software get released , we will then need more advanced PCs. I can see you probably did not know much about the high tech industry , especially anything about computers and semiconductors. So, you are not in a position to give any comments.
As to the PC price, of course, it won't drop too much, but it won't increase too much either due to fierce competition. CPQ, HWP, IBM, GTW, DELL, and many many no brand computers. Everyone want to sell their pcs, it means prolong price war. Who will benefit ? Microsoft !!!!