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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (6383)	7/27/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Respond to of 10921

"The Japanese culture is the way it is .... It's not going to turn on a dime just because we in the West think it should." So, if Japan and the rest of SEA will not change quickly, then the SEA portion of the semi downturn will be a force for the indeterminate future. From this perspective, it may be concluded that SEA portion of the upturn is a long way off. Ciao, David Todtman

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (6383)	7/27/1998 1:48:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

<< But if you ask the average citizen of either country whether they'd prefer lifetime employment to massive cyclical layoffs, what answer do you think you'd get? >> the above average in talent & skill would say "let me compete with possibility of layoffs and cycles" the below average would say "give me security of lifetime employmt" the middle of the road would be split with indifference issuing comments like "huh? gaijin pigs!! I love John Wayne!! how bout that Big Bertha driver?" the masses are saying loud and clear that they are pissed off... they want some change, but not much change... give them another year of pain, and they will be rejecting portions of their own culture sadly, Japanese culture is built around honor and shame, not forgiveness and renewal... that is a serious spiritual shortcoming that has infused their business world they will have to arrive independently at the same conclusion the Europeans made recently... that is THE U.S. BUSINESS MODEL IS SUPERIOR, MORE ADAPTIVE, MORE COMPETITIVE --- CHANGE, COMPETE, OR SUFFER Japan is a curious amalgam of mafia, socialism, mfg efficiency, dynamo savings... did you know they have two federal budgets??? one is voted upon by the Diet, the other is a massive slush fund of nearly equal size controlled by the Ministry of Finance... or is it Trade? or is it govt mafia a wise European once said "Capitalism results in the unequal distribution of wealth... Socialism results in the equal distribution of misery" ... Japan is a closed socialist nation masquerading as a capitalist economy debatable whether their culture has served them well for 1000 years... they toss out their deformed children... fathers are never home... treat Korean and other minorities worse than Americans do blacks or English do Irish... allying with Axis and Hitler brought total devastation in WW2... treated prisoners of war worse than any major nation in recent history... national inferiority complex results in fascination with US westerns, golf, baseball, and almost no original nuances since the shogun age Japan will change only when Nikkei gets at or below 10,000 and riots take place in the streets... not far off / Jim Willie

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (6383)	7/27/1998 2:07:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine - But if you ask the average citizen of either country whether they'd prefer lifetime employment to massive cyclical layoffs, what answer do you think you'd get? Sadly they don't have much choice in the matter in a global environment, as the US (and especially the unions) found out in the late 70's and 80's. And protectionism doesn't work either - see the US in the 1930's. Their only choice is whether they take a large dose of medicine now, or a huge dose later. Having said that, I agree that they probably think, however erroneously, that they have the choice you described. All JMO. Clark

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (6383)	7/27/1998 4:29:00 PM
From: John Cuthbertson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

OT: "The Japanese culture is the way it is because it has served the Japanese people well for thousands of years." Katherine, Perhaps you made this statement a bit off-the-cuff, but I think you would have to admit that it is much closer to the truth to say that the Japanese culture has served the Japanese elites well for thousands of years. Throughout most of that history, the welfare of the common person was not of much concern. A lot of that persists to this day, as manifested in the disdain shown for the interests of Japanese consumers vs. their producers. The Japanese culture is famously conformist not just due to some quirk of nature, but because of a history of brutal repression of those who failed to conform in one way or another by the ruling elite. A very good example is the massacre of Japanese Catholics in the 17th Century. Also, and on a brighter note, the Japanese culture has hardly been immutable over those thousands of years. True, they have strong, old traditions and much respect for those traditions, but Japanese society has been evolving rapidly since the middle of the last century. This actually gives me perhaps more optimism for Japan than some on this thread have. Japan has been changing, continues to do so, and I would bet that they will make the changes in their policies and culture that are needed now.

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (6383)	7/27/1998 9:04:00 PM
From: SemiBull	Respond to of 10921

<The Japanese culture is the way it is because it has served the Japanese people well for thousands of years.> Western influences have changed Japan to a much greater extent than people realize. Prior to the Westernization of Japan (80's), the Japanese ate very little meat and had low cancer rates. Today, beef and Big Macs are the rage, along with dyed hair, and yes the cancer rates are up dramatically. This, taken in consideration with a youth having a short attention span (not as short as our children in the U.S.) and a rejection of old culture will lead to dramatic changes. It may just not be as fast as we are accustomed here....within a blink of an eye. Just one man's spin....SemiBull

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (6383)	7/29/1998 8:22:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Re << ask citizens of either country whether they would prefer lifetime employment or massive cyclical layoffs. . . govt has served them well for thousands of years>> A vast oversimplification of even the theoretical issue. Ask any Russian the same question -- you still had the wholescale dismantling of the world's most prominent socialist economy. Of course, Japan isn't in their league, as far as the degree of government control of the economy, but then as resistant to change as Japan may be, their system is easier to modify than the USSR's was. The Japanese are very conservative, compounded by their intense ethnic identification and historical pride. But they aren't stupid, and they aren't going to put up with the government much longer. They have access to Western ideas. I disagree that the government has served them well. Its record is decidedly mixed, having sent their sons to mass slaughter in one of the stupidest moves in all history, i.e. bombing Pearl Harbor. The rebuilding of the economy was brilliant, but it's out of gas and unable or unwilling to adapt. I fully believe that the people are going to show their wrath at the polls in the next September elections and the LDP is going to get bounced, unless there is a miraculous economic turnaround. The Japanese are already starting to vote with their bank accounts. This is as effective for them as the ballot box. As capital disappears from the Japanese Postal Savings system and appears in US Treasure Auctions, the economic pinch is going to magnify. The hidden bosses have built their corporate market share (in many cases) the same way they started WWII -- on the backs of the people, only in this case abusing their capital as opposed to their sons. Oh well, we'll see, won't we?