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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (36542)	7/27/1998 12:47:00 PM
From: GOD.980722	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 53903

Listen up down there..... You ALL know who I am... and what I know... so: Its time to SHORT THIS POS !!!

To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (36542)	7/27/1998 2:29:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

Teri, In reality MU was making a little over 30million 16mb chips per MONTH. This equates to a bit production of 500mb/month. This is the simplest way to look at things. Now at that time it was all DRAM and as the NEED for SDRAM became important they upgraded their manufacturing to accommodate this need. This was mostly a change in their testing part of the process. More than 90% of all chips made now are SDRAM. As the PC's memory demand increased so did the need for 64mb chips. Contrary to the past two years of "forever bears" rantings that 64mb crossover was critical and would put MU out of business, this was never an important issue. It is simply bit requirements in the PC. So with the current PC requirements moving toward 64mbytes the 64mb chip is required even though they are slightly more expensive at $9+ as opposed to $2 for 16mb chips. You see crossover never occured but yet the 64mb chips are in demand. Now the next shift in technology of memory chips is PC100 for the the high end INTEL processors and some AMD processors. This will be the norm in 1999. Some memory companies still have not been able to manufacture these which cuts them out of the main business. Micron supposedly is at 70%wafer starts that are PC100. Now what does this mean to increased production. Well as you migrate production from 16mb chips to 64mb the ramp up has yield issues. Also the ramp up from PC66 to PC100 certainly has yield issues. So for someone to think that the same fab upgrade from 16mb PC66 to 64mb PC100 will have an increase by 4times the capacity, is taking to many puffs on his crack pipe. Capacity does not go up proportionately and varies from company to company. I would guess Micron is at 500million bit production at minimum with their current .35micron fabs and improving to almost double that some time in 1999 as they upgrade to .21microns. As far as most other companies I think they are doing worse. Don't believe all that bear hpye floating around. PC100 and 64mb chip products will be the norm for the next year and it is a task in itself to get the max production out of their fabs to meet the increasing demand. I do believe we could catch up by next year. I also think MU and maybe Samsung are benefiting now as the low cost producers. Hope this helped you. DaviG