Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : ACLY- ACCELR8. Year 2000 Stock -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr Logic who wrote (1410)	7/27/1998 1:23:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1518

My first reaction to ACLY's price movement is that if I were short, I would get out of my position BEFORE earnings. The shorts have been right on target and this stock has fallen to the level where I would be cautious. No news is not necessarily bad. Not great either. I agree that Market Cap still seems very high for the revenues this company generates, but a solid bottom line showing on earnings day could reverse the price trend in a hurry. This stock with it's small float could pull another move like it did at the end of 1996. I guess it all depends on your time frame and your patience level. Good luck, Michael

To: Mr Logic who wrote (1410)	7/27/1998 9:33:00 PM
From: 45bday	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1518

Pat: Must confess to making a booboo. I had planned to get my feet wet with a few shs. of ACLY after earnings were released. I was busy the other day and noticed the 10Q report and saw the stock drift from around 10 to 8 so without thinking bought some. Immediately realized the error of my ways, and for 1/8 pt. decided to get out and sit back again. I think we will get a great shot at this soon or maybe not!

To: Mr Logic who wrote (1410)	7/30/1998 1:02:00 AM
From: Albert Mou	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1518

Patrick, I just read your really very rational appraisal for ACLY's stock value, which I re-quote as below. I have a question - why ACLY? why not KEA? why not CPWR? Can you analyze it in the same fashion for how much it worth on KEA and CPWR? A mistaken hedge owner (long on ACLY, short on <guess what>, p.s. just realize the major mistake that ACLY was a penny stock only 2 years ago, but, but....why? why cruelty on my stock?) ====================================================================== Valuation: Tom Geimer predicts $12m for 98 & $20m for 99, total $32m revenues. At 50% NET margins call that $16m in earnings, or $2/share. The non-2000 business is about $600k pa REVENUES. Say 30% NET margins for $0.025/shr, give that business a PE of 40 (I'm trying to be optimistic here) and the underlying business is worth $1. That's $3 total value for the business - where does the other $7 come from?! Maybe the y2k numbers work out twice as good as Geimer predicts, and give the underlying business a PE of 80... that still only gives us $6/share. (ha! so, you will call current price a fair value?) I can't imagine how anyone believes there is upside given these (public domain) numbers. If it pops to 20 I will definitely be short again! Patrick.