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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (21169)	7/27/1998 1:59:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 31646

CR.. try running your formula for success on some other companies using "So the Y2K business is being valued at $125M. This is not $125M in revenue, but $125M in after tax profits over the next 2 years. A "not to exceed $9M" contract, like with the LADWP, may generate close to $1M in after tax profits. It is simple arithmetic to figure out that TAVA needs to do over $1 Billion in Y2K revenue in under two years to achieve $125M in after tax profits - impossible!" Are you saying market cap should equal "profits" over the next two years? No company would meet that criteria. IBM's won't profit its market cap of $116 billion ORCL won't profit its market cap of $ 25 billion MSFT certainly won't profit its cap of $ 278 billion Nor will TAVA cease to exist after 2000 and only be the worth of its core business. Indeed its core business has become the Y2K business and the opportunities they will provide going forward. For some odd reason some people figure its bad in some way to have a short term business windfall. This is like saying its bad for a company to get one big contract out of the blue, or for a family to win lotto. The capital gains, work relationship and exposure are unique opportunities that most companies would die for.

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (21169)	7/27/1998 5:37:00 PM
From: Too Wise	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31646

<<TAVA hopes to do $25M in Y2K per quarter ... if they can find adequate staff. If you are generous and use 8 quarters: 8 X $25M = $200M in Y2K revenue, or a small fraction of the revenue required to justify their market cap. This is why the stock price is falling and will continue to fall over the next year. Regards, Bill>>>> Oh, and the street is just catching onto this now...lol Why then did tava move from $2 to almost $15? I know, people are just now starting to do the math?? Unfortunately stocks do not always trade at an ideal valuation. Y2K stocks are out of favor now but I'm sure within the next 6-8 mo. they will be back in favor. I believe this stock will run up again before it settles down to a realistic level. What I don't understand is at these levels, why aren't the shorts covering? Do you really think that when Tava reports very strong earnings over the next few Qtr's, the stock won't rise. Tava has not reached its peak yet and when it does, I would think at that time, tava would make an opportune short candidate .