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Technology Stocks : Apple Computer (AAPL): Analysis and Forecasting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew Danielson who wrote (325)	7/27/1998 7:00:00 PM
From: Sam Scrutchins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 692

Apple over the last several days has at worst tracked and sometimes outperformed the general market and the box makers in particular. Then, when a rally finally gets in gear, Apple barely gets off the mat. Andrew, I wouldn't get too concerned about Apple's weakness today. The stock is still basing, some are beginning to question whether Apple can meet, let alone beat, the Q4 earnings estimates because of its production limitations, and the report came out this weekend on PC sales citing Dell's catching Compaq but with no mention of Apple. These factors probably held the stock back to a large extent. In addition, the upside attempts this morning were all overcome by the Nasdaq's weakness, so I suspect most investors became leary as the afternoon wore on. As you know, interest in all stocks ebbs and flows over time. It's currently ebb time for Apple, but probably for not too much longer. Interest will start picking up as rumors and news about the iMac begin to surface. I've gone long again in options. I started bottom fishing with the Aug and Sep 32.5's when the stock went to 34 1/4 last week, closing the gap, and I have been picking up contracts ever since. I fear I may have come in too early, because the overall market weakness is more pronounced than I thought it would be. Hi Grader's Elliot Wave analysis is interesting in terms of a potential bottom today, but I always thought the theory only applied to overall markets, not to individual stocks. At any rate, I will pick up more options if the stock dips again, but will probably sell some or all of the positions when and if the stock approaches 36. This market does not look very healthy to me right now, and I fear another selloff. FWIW, Sam