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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjs_ynot who wrote (1332)	7/28/1998 12:40:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

Dave- I'm glad to hear you say that quantitative analysis is welcome... Concerning the market discounting 6-12 months in advance.....Well, it works probably better in theory than in practice...Sure, there are some things that the market can generally forecast (usually broader downturns in the economy), but if you are applying this specific stocks, or to the PC industry, I think this is not (always) so practical a tool: ie, are you telling me that the market already discounted 6 MONTHS AGO that Gateway would miss their estimate by 6 cents....Then why the sudden drop in price the next day, or why (in February) did Compaq's stock get hammered after mentioning the massive inventory problems...or Dell's bounce today....No, its clear that these reports do mean a lot to near-term price movements, and, again, I would not want to be short Dell in the next four weeks....Dell had been weak (last week) because the market needed assurance as to how the quarter was going (all their PC competition buddies have been stinking the joint up lately)..They got with the Dataquest/IDC numbers.... Try after earnings...might make some money....Better yet, go long Dell..it's a lot easier then timing shorts... If you were not talking about the PC industry (with your comment) it might hold some more validity, but I doubt that was the case.... Thanks for the input and good luck with your investments... respectfully..