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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yikes who wrote (10783)	7/27/1998 8:47:00 PM
From: Keith A Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

AOL aka MSFT. This is really an apples to oranges comparison. Microsoft got a huge break with IBM and Gates capitalized on it, then was pushed along (and given plenty of code) from Intel. By the time IBM realized they had been hoodwinked, it was too late and OS/2 has gone the way of the stagecoach. The barriers to entry became excessive. (OS/2 ran over the billion dollar R&D mark with very little market penetration by comparison to windows) In the online service provider world, the barriers to entry are realatively minor and all the major telcos/cable providers realize they had better get on the bandwagon or get left in the dust. AOL is enjoying its time in the sun, but, storm clouds are on the horizon and this coming earnings report may be the best they can ever hope for. After that, the house of cards that Case built may get exposed for what it is: a financial numbers game.

To: Yikes who wrote (10783)	7/28/1998 8:54:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

What is this 'total subscribers' crap?! AOL cannot target ICQ users for the advertising, i.e. it doesn't know if an ICQ user is a sports fan in order to show the user sports related advertisement. Also, ICQ is a free service with no real way for a user to terminate an account. I tried ICQ over two years ago, I bet my account is still active. You can't count ICQ as part of the 'market'. Are you serious?! ICQ can become whatever AOL wants it to become - the reason being AOL now owns it! Yes, it is a free service (for now). But does it have to stay that way? The software can be recoded (and it should btw, some security holes), and more importantly the UI can be designed to support advertising. If you think that AOL simply decided to buy ICQ to spend some cash - you need to revisit a principal called ROI. Again, AOL can't create a monopoly like Windows OS. Every PC is forced to run Windows95/NT because most software are written for it. But every service provided by AOL can be duplicated, including the user-friendly packaging. Wrong. No one is "forced" to run Windows/NT. I'm sure you've heard of UNIX, Linux, Macintosh? Yes, there is another world other then Windows. You saying that AOL can be duped - but Win can't? Nothing is farther from the truth. Any technology out there today can be improved, re-engineered and re-packaged. All it takes is enough capitol - both monetary and human. If you know the story of how Windows actually came about, you wouldn't be so quick to say that it is the holy grail. Of course, this thread isn't about MSFT. BTW, I do use their software... S.