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Biotech / Medical : Duramed (DRMD) Synthetic Estrogen Product -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doug Bean who wrote (779)	7/28/1998 1:25:00 AM
From: Robert L. Ray	Respond to of 1837

Doug, A while back I sold my DRMD after holding for a fairly long while. The reason I sold was my concern about the very long range market potential of Cenestin even if approved. And yes I think it will eventually get approval and DRMD will get a pop in the market after approval. It's just that eventually Premarin and Cenestin will be replaced by a more selective type of Estrogen replacement drug. AHP and Ligand (and perhaps PFE also) are working on Estrogen mimics which will be much more selective in their action than regular estrogen. In other words Estrogen as we now know it has some bad side effects such as an increased rate of cancer. The more selective drugs will eliminate those side effects. I put my proceeds from my DRMD sale into LGND. Sheese, I feel sorta dirty all over because LGND is in partnership with DRMD's mortal enemy, AHP on this but ya gotta do what ya gotta do:) I can see it now.... AHP keeps fighting the Cenestin approval tooth and nail and finally...... FINALLY, when Cenestin gains approval APH starts a marketing campaign for these new Estrogen mimics that don't have any side effects and thus pulls the rug out from under Censestin and Premarin both. But they won't care because they'll own a nice piece of the new pie. Admittedly these estrogen mimics are still quite a few years down the road but they most definately seem to be coming. DRMD may very well still be a bargain at these prices but at this point my money is on LGND. DRMD will have a window of opportunity after Cenestin is finally approved to make some pretty good money. It's difficult to say how long that window will stay open though. For their sake I hope they make lots of hay while the sun is shining. Best of luck.

To: Doug Bean who wrote (779)	7/28/1998 3:43:00 AM
From: Dante Sinferno	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1837

<<DRMD needs another press release >> It sure would be nice....then I could short at a higher level than the current 5 and change in anticipation of their convertible kicking in.... From their 8K filing on Feb 6th : One half of the preferred shares are convertible immediately with the remaining half convertible after August 4, 1998. The conversion price for the first half of the Series F Preferred Stock will be $7.30 per share for at least the first six months. Thereafter, with respect to the second half of the Series F Preferred Stock and any unconverted portion of the first half, the conversion price will vary depending on the timing of conversions and the market price of the common stock. The conversion price will range from a premium to the market price, to a discount from the market price of the common stock. At the closing of this transaction, Duramed had approximately 17.9 million common shares outstanding. Depending on the ultimate conversion price, the number of common shares issued in satisfaction of conversion could range from a low of 1,397,000 to a high of 3,582,000, with provision for cash redemption of any remaining unconverted Series F Preferred Stock. Regards , Rob