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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (3034)	7/28/1998 12:35:00 AM
From: set	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5676

what'ya think wannabbno - will I get ZQNUT for $5 or less? I think it's good for better than $20 before sept expiration.

To: bobby beara who wrote (3034)	7/28/1998 7:05:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 5676

BB, Good call on DELL and YHOO. Did you play YHOO to the upside? I day traded AOL long (took only 2 points). The signs that last week was THE top are numerous. - VIX went to a 52 week low (lowest since 11/96). This made me shout Bear all by itself. (Post #2939, Friday the 17th). - Daring Dozen failing to keep ahead of the pack, MRK took a big blow and the whole sector now looks "unsafe". There are simply no stocks or sectors left to pull the market higher. IBM can't do that alone, and it, too, has completed a 5 count from June 16th. - Momentum is failing. - Russell 2000 started on what looks like wave 3 down, staying ahead of the SPX and other big cap indices by closing slightly down the day the SPX hit the top, SAME AS IN APRIL, when it closed marginally down on the 22nd. - Mfs 4.5% in cash. $75B found their way into stocks through this vehicle since April, yet the SPX is only 5% higher, and the Russell is 20%(!) lower, giving around the same read for the total market cap. If $75B cannot move the market up, then there is serious selling by other parties. - Stocks making double top on failing technicals. I thought it couldv'e been nice if MSFT would've had passed GE as the biggest (market cap) company in the world just before the top. It would've been giving a nice clear example of this market's valuations for the text books of generations to come. MSFT's market cap is now only 4% less then GE's. Maybe fully diluted it has already There's a very clear 5 count DOWN on intraday charts of YHOO (6 days) and AOL (5 days)- from top to yesterday's low. Was Monday the a of an abc correction? OEX double bottomed Friday and Monday. It soared above the local resistance at 560.5, but I believe it will not pass 570. I expect today we will see the OEX down 3 points in the first 2 hrs. of trade (SPX down 7), making the b of the abc, and continue up to intraday high around 566, making the c . Last hr. sell off should bring the market to close slightly down for the day, starting the second leg down. If this scenario holds, then it confirms that the top has been made. Then I expect another down day tomorrow that will complete the 5 of 1 of 1 down. Another check- In Aug '97 the second leg down was not as large and not as steep as the first move. That led to a strong comeback after labor day. IMO this time it will be different, as they say. ATG