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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (5275)	7/28/1998 10:23:00 AM
From: Scott Mc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24905

Kerm, (re SGY) thanks for your feedback its really appreciated, regarding shares issued, my records show 28.2 + 16.6(to be issued) for 44.8, where is a good source for the nbrs (besides the annual report)as my nbrs seem incorrect? Scott

To: Kerm Yerman who wrote (5275)	7/28/1998 9:44:00 PM
From: CIMA	Respond to of 24905

Global Intelligence Update Red Alert July 29, 1998 Yemeni-Saudi Border Dispute Fueled by a Third Party? Until now, we have withheld comment on the long-running border dispute between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, primarily because it is such a chronic, low-grade problem. Clashes along the border in the last few months, and the Saudi capture of a few unoccupied Red Sea islands, have represented little change in the status quo between the two countries, and little threat to the region's overall stability. The stagnant negotiations between Riyadh and Sana are likewise unsurprising. However, recent developments in the region suggest there may be more to this story than just an old grudge and the contested ownership of a piece of desert covering a potential oil field. According to a July 22 report in the Russian newspaper "Russkii Telegraf," Russia is preparing to resume arms sales to Yemen. The newspaper reported that a high-ranking Yemeni Defense Ministry delegation visited the Gagarin Aviation Production Association in Komsomolsk-na-Amure on July 21, to discuss the purchase of Su-27 fighter aircraft. The delegation was then scheduled to visit a test range at Kapustin Yar to observe combat applications of the S-300PMU surface-to-air missile system. The delegation were reported to then be traveling to Moscow at the end of last week to sign contracts for the purchase of the weapon systems. Russia had ceased supplying arms to Yemen since the end of 1992, due to Yemen's failure to pay its bills. Yemen is among Russia's top five debtors, owing approximately $6.5 billion. However, Yemen reportedly plans to pay this order in full -- as much as $500 million. As Yemen has accompanied the rest of the oil-producing states in suffering the economic impact of low crude oil prices, the question immediately arises: Who is footing Sana's bill for the missiles and warplanes? A July 27 report in the London-based Arabic language newspaper "Al-Quds al- Arabi" quoted reliable sources as confirming that the Saudi opposition in exile has initiated extensive contacts with Yemen, aimed at establishing a base near the Saudi border. Sana is reported to be seriously considering the proposal, as it has already charged the Saudis with inciting and funding Yemeni opposition forces. Sana has accused Riyadh of providing supplies, sanctuary, and field leadership to opposition forces responsible for recent bombings in Yemen. Border clashes between Yemen and Saudi Arabia are not news, but negotiations with opposition forces and the possibility of foreign financial involvement certainly is. We have been monitoring the ongoing realignment in the Middle East, and in particular the growing rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In return for Saudi assistance in freeing Iran from its regional isolation, Iran has reined in the opposition forces it supported within Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, with Riyadh and Tehran now seeing eye-to-eye on major regional issues, other Gulf States have opened up to Iran. Kuwait in particular has become close to Iran, carrying out high-level diplomatic exchanges and recently downplaying the threat of Iran's missile program to regional stability. The one country that is distinctly threatened by Iran's increasing role in the region is Iraq. We have reported on deteriorating relations between Iraq and Iran, and have outlined our argument that Iraq is facing a near- term attack, both to topple Saddam Hussein and to cut Iraqi oil production (http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/071798.html, stratfor.com, and stratfor.com. With little to offer either Saudi Arabia or Iran to break up the alliance against it, Baghdad could reasonably be expected to resort to less than diplomatic methods. Iraq has supported Iranian opposition forces, and aiding Saudi rebels would help distract Riyadh from plots against Baghdad. Besides a June 16 visit by Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan to Sana, there is little solid evidence to conclusively link Iraq to Yemen's feud with Saudi Arabia at the present. However, we think the Saudi-Yemeni dispute is worth watching. _______________________________________________ To receive free daily Global Intelligence Updates or Computer Security Alerts, sign up on the web at stratfor.com, or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com ___________________________________________________ STRATFOR Systems, Inc. 3301 Northland Drive, Suite 500 Austin, TX 78731-4939 Phone: 512-454-3626 Fax: 512-454-1614 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com