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To: SecularBull who wrote (54679)	7/28/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: rudedog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

LoD - So perhaps we need to restate last year's sales for CPQ, hmmmm???? Yes - That's what I said, CPQ's 97 revenues were overstated (IMHO) by about a million units. The 12M run rate should have been 11M. Note that the channel stuffing occurred over a long period, creeping up by a week or so each year for more than 10 years. 1997 was a banner year for stuffing, I think that the number went from 12 weeks in jan of 97 to 16 weeks in jan of 98. But that's still only 4 weeks of inventory increase, not the whole 12 that was unloaded in 1Q and 2Q 98.

To: SecularBull who wrote (54679)	7/28/1998 12:46:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

So perhaps we need to restate last year's sales for CPQ, hmmmm? Of course, and that is the point that Rudedog was making. Measuring factory output is simply erroneous in a business where technology changes rapidly. What counts is the number of units ending up in the hands of the ultimate customer. Anything else is smoke and mirrors. IDC and others assume that reseller inventories remain constant. But the problems witnessed over the last few quarters call that practice into question. TTFN, CTC