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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RevMikeB who wrote (23645)	7/28/1998 12:03:00 PM
From: Hippieslayer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Why should the street understand a brilliant technology that doesn't generate any revenue. You r right that they'll start to understand it when they see of the millions of dollars spent perfecting these compounds start to generate money.

To: RevMikeB who wrote (23645)	7/28/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Proton	Respond to of 32384

Re: Waiting for Understanding, and the Cycle Picture The street isn't even close to understanding. The question is if and when they will ever understand it. The answer is no!... Hear, hear! We have to wait for understanding, wait for the sector to turn around, wait for approvals, wait for this, and wait for that. Mr. Market has show what he thinks of waiting on this stock. I presented an alternative to the "buy and cheer" strategy for this stock, which is to buy on FDA approval. This strategy leaves some discretion to the buyer: does one bet on off-label use of a minor drug, or does one wait for a major indication to be approved? In either event, the strategy your correspondent outlined would have kept one clear of the recent wealth-corroding effects of LGND (which, as I have documented, extend back at least the the beginning of this thread). And, with all due respect, please spare me the "hindsight opthamology:" since I began discussing the alternate tactics, LGND has shed more than 10%. Generally, the "20/20" argument looks pathetically weak, given nearly two years of skepticism -- sometimes hostile and petty, granted -- evidenced on this thread. The sad fact is, skepticism is not well received at Lake Ligand, to the detriment of the cabin owners. :-( On to the cycle case: A weekly chart of LGND shows a cycle that has lasted for nearly two years. Through the January spike decline, the cycle-bottom interval was four-five months. By this measure, we ought to have expected LGND to turn up during the month of June. It didn't happen. The failure of the cycle was another indication that Lake Ligand was going to stay polluted for a while. The question now is: does the recent spike down represent a cyclical bottom? As always, I can only provide parameters to follow. There is a strong band of support in the 10.875-11.50 range. One may wish to take advantage of today's weakness to establish a position with a tight stop. Be careful of a false breakdown (recall the January spike), but respect this strong range of support. A break below 10.75 would... well, I don't even want to discuss it. :-O Pý p.s. I realize there might not be enough "rationality" in this post, but it's the best I can muster. A pessimist is what an optimist calls a realist.

To: RevMikeB who wrote (23645)	7/28/1998 8:06:00 PM
From: Machaon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

<< They only care if drugs get approved for big markets that will make them money. It's that simple. >> Good note! I've just got one question. If it is that simple, how does one evaluate a biotech stock? Obviously investors pour hundreds of millions of dollars into biotechs. LGND was over $17 per share last year. They were a long way from NDA approval. Now they are around $11. Is it your point that LGND will not go back up to $17, or higher, until they get a drug approved for a large market? Then, why did they hit $17 last year? ENMD went up $70 per share, after a six month old announcement about them cutting off the blood supply to tumors in rats, was re-released. I think that you are right about the Market saying, "Show me the money", but I've played clinical stage biotechs for several years, and have done well, without the biotechs having a drug on the market. Also, if it was well known that clinical stage biotechs never did well, noone would ever buy the stocks and we would never see a biotech rally, and they would never be able to issue an IPO, because noone would ever buy it. Nevertheless, in your opinion, where does the sector and/or LGND go from here? Thanks, Bob