Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grommit who wrote (602)	7/28/1998 1:19:00 PM
From: Keith J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1153

Grommit, please check your numbers again. Even IF you keep utilization at the same level and lower gulf rates to $6000, I only come up with about a net $4.1 million reduction in after tax income for Q3 if you leave everything else the same from Q2. This is about 37 cents for Q3 then, and I doubt that rates will fall to $6000 during the quarter and utilization should go up some (although will need the conference call info to help determine how much). KJ

To: Grommit who wrote (602)	7/28/1998 1:42:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth	Respond to of 1153

assuming day rates for supply vessels fall to $6K and utilization remains the same: you come up with about $18.9 Mil rev for supply boats which is a reduction of $6,529 in total revenue from this quarter total. However, we know that (a) supply boats available for the next quarter will increase from the current 35 to around 38 (contracts kick in for three more boats) and that (b) current contracts running are still getting between $7000 and $8200 per boat which extends into the 2nd half of the year (only new contracts are running at $6K) for supply boats; so net revenue reduction for the next quarter would equal less than $3 million assuming that (a) 1 extra lift boat comes back on contract as scheduled (b) day rates in the North Sea remain constant (which we know they will since these are long term contracts lasting into next year) and (c) crewline boat rates remain constant (crewline rates have varied little from quarter to quarter). next year more boats are coming on line, utilization is expected to increase from current 70% to 90% for supply boats which gives them 5 more boats per quarter or net revenue approximating $24.50 million for supply boats only per quarter (utilization increases as drydocking repairs, double hulling is finished). North Sea contracts run through the end of next year so these rates will approximate the same as well. Interest expense will be markedly lower for all of next year as well. It's a stretch to come up with $.99 in earnings for 1999. they're justifying their short positon on the stock. and why not. they can do that. Any new additional boat purchases will add to the bottom line.