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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: put2rich who wrote (12079)	7/28/1998 2:01:00 PM
From: virgil vancleave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

tells me that there are lots of shorts out there who have to cover sometime. any slight recovery in the stock will be overexagerated. amzn is now looking like a wounded animal chart wise. should pullback to a right shoulder probably as the shorts cover and then is the time to short. the options are way too high priced. one way to play amzn would be to buy the stock and sell the covered calls for the premiums and use that to purchase some puts at a lower strike price. prefereably more puts than stock, and then if you're right about the large movement down to come you profit quite well without assuming much risk. hope this helps. good luck.

To: put2rich who wrote (12079)	7/28/1998 3:23:00 PM
From: Bob Trocchi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Thanh... Re: AMZN. I have no position in AMZN but I did find the following as part of a discussion about stocks. thought you might find it interesting. The complete article can be found at the address included below. Bob T. >>VThen there is Keith Benjamin, who puts a different methodology to work at the San Francisco brokerage firm BancAmerica Robertson Stephens. He looks principally at how many people are turning to the given business and how that feeds into earnings. With Amazon.com he estimates that more than 8 million people will be using the site by the year 2001, contributing to revenue of $120 per user and net income of over $7 per user. Taking these figures, he then projects an earnings number for the year 2001, discounting expected expenses. Assuming that earnings should trade at a multiple of 50, he then comes up with a current price target based on those numbers. Given all this, he figures, Amazon.com should be trading at 44 -- 52% lower than its current price. And then, of course, there is the very real possibility that this bookselling phenomenon is just a sitting duck, with Barnes & Noble (BKS) -- a company with 1,011 stores, $2.8 billion in revenue and 27 years of success under Chairman Leonard Riggio -- vowing to blow Amazon.com off the Net one day soon. With risks like these on the Internet, is it any wonder that Warren Buffett just bought an insurance company? smartmoney.com;