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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (22216)	7/28/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

SAFE HAVEN=SEMI STOCKS- THEY ARE LIKE UTILTIES IN THE GROWTH STOCKS. LETS GO KLAC, VECO, LSCC,TER, TSEMF-I LOVE VECO AND TSEMF AT THESE PRICES.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (22216)	7/28/1998 4:34:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

brian: re: very bullish on INTC : If you're bullish on amat long-term, then you have to be bullish on intc. The fortunes of the two companies are intimately and permanently linked. INTC is amat's biggest customer, by far. Long-term, the stocks will do about the same, but amat is a much less safe stock. For reasons I've posted in exhausive detail before, I think the return on amat will only be higher than with intc if I can get amat below P/S=2, that is, below 26. re: can big companies get bigger: unequivocal yes. Only 40% of US households have a PC. Market penetration of other rich countries is much lower. I'm not sure of the exact number, but I think that only about 2% of the world's families have a PC at home. Within my lifetime, this number will be above 90%. The graph of market penetration is S-shaped, and we are still on the sharp up-slope of the curve. Nowhere near saturation. And that just counts PCs. Gosh, I sound like you (when you're talking about amat). Server chips will maintain intc's margins, while they cut CPU chip prices as low as necessary to starve amd. 20-25% eps growth, and a 20-25 PE (using trailing earnings of course) is reasonable for intc going forward. The market is deciding that the semis have bottomed and are on their way up. If we follow the 1996 pattern, semi-equips will bottom 6 months later. I'm hoping to get amat at the bottom, and not pay taxes on my huge intc gains until april 2000.