To: Copeland who wrote (26656 ) 7/28/1998 5:33:00 PM From: P.Prazeres Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
API Crude Stocks Seen Falling New York, July 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. inventories of crude oil and gasoline fell last week as refineries churned out gasoline for the peak-demand summer driving season, analysts expect an industry report to show. Distillate fuel supplies, including heating oil, probably rose, as is usual during summer when heating fuel demand is low, the analysts said. The American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly inventory report after markets close. ''Typically at this time of year we see fairly sustained declines in crude oil and gasoline inventories,'' said Bill O'Grady, an energy analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. in St. Louis. ''If we don't it could get ugly.'' Crude oil inventories probably fell 1.64 million barrels, or 0.5 percent, during the week ended July 24, the average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Still, three of the analysts predicted an increase. Crude supplies unexpectedly rose the previous week, by 6.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories probably fell 1.19 million barrels, or 0.5 percent, the survey showed, with six of the nine analysts predicting a decline. Distillates Distillate supplies, including home heating oil and diesel, probably rose 900,000 barrels, or 0.6 percent, last week, the survey showed. Seven of the nine analysts predicted a gain. Distillate supplies, already at a high pre-winter level, rose a greater-than-expected 4.4 million barrels the week before, pushing heating oil futures close to a 12-year low. The analysts expected refinery utilization fell, by an average of 0.63 percentage point, last week after refiners used a record 100.3 percent of their rated capacity the previous week. Refiners can sometimes exceed 100 percent of rated capacity at times of peak demand, such as during the summer when gasoline consumption is high. INDIVIDUAL FIRMS' ESTIMATES (For week ended July 24, 1998) -------------------------------- CHANGE IN STOCKPILES (millions of barrels) Firm Crude Gasoline Distillates ---- ----- -------- ----------- A.G. Edwards -3.0 to -4.0 -1.5 to -2.5 +0.5 to +1.5 Cargill -3.0 to -4.0 -1.5 to -2.0 -0.5 to -1.0 ED&F Man -3.5 to -4.5 unch to +1.0 +0.1 to +1.1 GSC Energy +1.0 -1.0 +2.0 Paribas +1.0 to +2.0 -3.0 +2.0 Prudential -1.5 -2.0 +1.25 Refco Inc. +1.0 to +3.0 unch to +2.0 unch to +2.0 Salomon Smith B. -3.5 to -5.0 -1.0 to +1.0 +0.5 to +1.5 Spear, Leeds & K. -2.0 to -3.0 -2.0 to -3.0 -0.5 to +0.5 AVERAGE (of 9) -1.64 -1.19 +0.9 RANGE (of 9) -4.5 to +3.0 -3.0 to +2.0 -1.0 to +2.0 CHANGE IN CAPACITY UTILIZATION Firm (in percentage points) ---- ------------------------------ A.G. Edwards -0.5 to -1.5 Cargill unchanged to -0.5 ED&F Man lower GSC Energy -0.5 Paribas -0.5 to -1.0 Prudential -1.0 Refco Inc. -0.5 to +0.5 Salomon Smith Barney unchanged to -1.0 Spear, Leeds & K. -0.5 to -1.5 AVERAGE (of 8) -0.63 RANGE (of 8) -1.5 to +0.5 STATISTICS ON PREVIOUS WEEK'S REPORT (in millions of barrels, unless stated otherwise) ------------------------------------------------- Category Total Weekly Change -------- -------- ---------------- (Week Ended July 17, 1998) Crude Oil 341.53 +6.86 Total Motor Gasoline 220.16 -1.29 Distillate Fuels 139.73 +4.43 Capacity Utilization (*) 100.3 +0.1 Category Year-on-Year Surplus/(Deficit) -------- ------------------------------ (Week ended July 17, 1998) Crude Oil 22.88 Total Motor Gasoline 22.35 Distillate Fuels 19.59 Capacity Utilization (*) 4.0