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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stitch who wrote (4021)	7/29/1998 12:34:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9256

Let me elaborate a little on why I like HTCH provided the TSA story holds up: 1) According to both Montgomery and H&Q, HTCH becomes profitable in the December quarter with substantial sequential growth each quarter thereafter. By the Sept 99 qtr, H&Q projects eps of $.78 on 181 million in revenue. That annualizes to $724 mil revenue and $3.12 eps. 2)At the 15 or 20 times earnings that unchallenged leadership would easily support, share price could be $47 to $62. I personally can't see any other disk drive stock doubling or tripling in the same time period and feel that this thread is probably as capable as anyone of figuring out whether the TSA story is materializing (for what its worth, both Montgomery and H & Q have buys on HTCH based on the TSA prospects). In my experience, its very rare to have an opportunity where research on a single issue can lead to 100% plus returns.

To: Stitch who wrote (4021)	7/29/1998 8:23:00 AM
From: CPAMarty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Cramer is on CNBC this morning. He stated that now that the inventory problems appear to be over for the computer industry this group could lead the techs out of the current correction. By the way have you heard anything about a 3.4GB qual for RDRT at WDC lately?

To: Stitch who wrote (4021)	7/29/1998 9:46:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Stitch, Here is a different Carl Johnson post that is ostensibly on the semis, but is entirely relevant to drives as well: exchange2000.com Note the following excerpt, especially in light of your comments on the WDC thread about Taiwanese money coming into drives. Geez, these Asians are like bankers, except that bankers just find the next area to get a negative return on your money, while these guys are the entrepreneurs who create the next great place to lose money. Of course, the first guys in probably get all of these money back plus much more, what do they care? (excerpt below, he is talking about the downturn in the semi equipment sector) To answer your question: I still believe that the current downturn is an extension of the severely over-capacitized state the industry was in during latter months of 1996. Clearly, the move by a number of players to 0.25 micron delayed the inevitable downturn. Also, the hell-bent for leather ramp in Taiwan got everyone believing that the bottom of late '96 was the real McCoy. Whew! The Taiwanese are really hurting right now! If you talk to people who are closely tied with the equipment business they will tell you that '97 was a bit of a fluke - real but a bit of an anomaly in comparison with past cycles. We were looking for demand side weakness and it only materialized in a few segments. Today, a different story can be told about the demand side (here is a chart depicting the demand side weakness <http://www.infras.com/news/units.gif>. Help me. If you have evidence to the contradict this data please present it. I also believe this cycle is different because we have never witnessed a period where it was prudent to borrow and spend on new fabs so you could make products that lose you more money. Now that's a business model that I find utterly amusing. No Limit-Poker? Strikes me as a complete and utter disregard for the "first law of holes"! Maybe we could get an answer from the Koreans or, how about the Japanese! (my note: of course, the drive sector has, except for the brief shining period between 1994 and 1997, seemed to operate on that model for most of its existence.)