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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alias Shrugged who wrote (1372)	7/28/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14427

Mike, my thought on the big picture for the 2H of 1998 is actually pretty simple. We are not going to see much growth in the next two quarter and with the gain to date and the still high PE for the S&P 500 companies, the scenario of at best side way action from now till the end of the year is set. I hope there is a big selloff coming soon because I would be a buyer at that big selloff and will primarily short till then. 75% of S&P companies have reported and we are entering the life-after-quarter earning period. In the recent past strong economic numbers carried the days when there is no earning news but I don't see any strong economic numbers between now and the end of the year in any stretched scenarios. I think the average joe companies will trade sideway to down for the next 2 quarters. But because of the still strong influx of US money (401k, pension funds, more new investors, etc.) into the US market, the big averages will continue to be relatively strong. The only way they will be brought down to earth strongly but temporarily will be a Black or Grey Monday but that selloff I doubt will last. It will be used, once again, as the buying opportunity and people will again load up on the big name companies. However, the average joe companies will tank and remained suppressed with low PE's and all and no one wants to touch them. I checked the charts on the followings tonight: BBY KRB ORCL INHL WPI ICOS NBTY PIXR I will short ICOS tomorrow and look to put BBY if they continue to bounce. Resistence for BBY is at 49 1/4. Another short candidate is ORCL with resistence right at 27. The resistence for WPI is at 46. PIXR's chart shows pretty good support at 44-45. Therefore, I will not short PIXR here. LT - you are always late as the easy money has been made! <gg> However, I will be very interested if it can close below 44. LT - any more development at KRB? Doc - I will not want to touch SRCM tomorrow as this is going to be a pure speculation and I don't feel there is any advantage to be had either long or short. Papaya - for MU to move down strongly, all it takes is Kurlac opens his mouth and says a few cautious words about MU. The long positions established today will find out if that is the right move tomorrow or Thursday. The novelty of analyst good recommendation will not last longer than a week. However, I would not be so gungho if I were you as stranger unexpected things always happen. Did the driller experience teach you anything?