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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Sabatini who wrote (22231)	7/28/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

There's a lot to be said for concentrating on leaders. But remember that only one of the original Dow Industrials (GE) is still part of the index. GE is also the only one of the 10 largest US companies 100 years ago that is still among the 10 largest today. And even I'm old enough to remember when AT&T and IBM were "invincible" monopolies. Empires more stable than AMAT's still fall. IMO, if AMAT's stock price is predicated on $20 billion in revenue within two years, a lot of investors are in for a big surprise. I expect basically flat revenues between now and mid-1999 or so, so they'll have to more than triple in just one year to get to $20 billion. Even with less pessimistic industry conditions, $20 billion represents a whole lot of growth in a very short time. The historical growth rate for the entire industry is only 17%/year. Katherine