Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (22233)	7/28/1998 10:53:00 PM
From: C_Johnson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hello Ian, Caught me on a night where I am in the mood for posting. Thanks for the welcome back. I am not going to post frequently but I will try to offer some comments periodically. :-) Didn't even notice post #22,222 - do I get an award? 2. Thanks for the URL to that most interesting chart on Unit IC Y/Y growth. The last point plotted seems to be an all time low. Contrarian that I am, I would take that as a bullish sign. I don't think that last point is an all time low but it is certainly off quite a bit from last year. It would not surprise me to see the number tick up late this year as XMAS buying kicks in. I don't see the XMAS season buying alleviating the capacity glut though. So far the device companies have been reporting pretty dismal results - partly due to a weak pricing environment and partly due to weak demand. Of course, for anyone looking at more than two quarters the wild card is SEA. 3. RE SI member dislike of the analyst community. My comments were probably too defensive. I do agree with your comments about investment banking relationships and the role of the analyst. Yet we have to realize this is a dirty job and somebody has to do it (they certainly get paid enough!). 4. None of us consistently win accolades for market timing. Certainly we shouldn't expect perfection from you especially when you never promised it. I think my market timing skills have been eroded by a focus on fundamental analysis. Maybe it's time to break out the charts and forget about who is actually making money! Ugh! 5. Just as '96 downturn came to an end with technology buys rather than capacity, it is quite possible that this downturn may come to an end as the DRAM makers rush to catch up with the leading edge production technology in their sector. The DRAM market is certainly an interesting animal. I am hearing that yields on 64Mbit parts are getting in to the mid 90 percent range (after laser repair). One company (who will remain nameless) has said their before repair yields are lower - 100 to 120 die to be repaired out of the possible 253 candidates on a 200mm wafer. This seems to be the case with many manufacturers and the capacity should hit the market later this year. For 256Mbit and beyond, I don't think we will see the capacity buying come on line until late '99 or early '00. The price firming we are seeing today is most likely a function of the reduced inventory in the channel and the very slight cutbacks we have seen by quite a few producers. We're not out of the woods yet. We have been saying the recovery in the equipment industry will likely evolve in more of a U-shape than a spike up. I think you are wise to anticipate a more subdued rally in the stocks. On point #6 - I absolutely agree that all opinions are worth considering. No one is right all the time. Regards, Carl INFRASTRUCTURE infras.com